Chicken Little Lives

By William L. Kovacs

June 2002

We know the story of Chicken Little. The little chick thought the sky was falling because she was hit in the head by an acorn. She convinced the other barnyard animals that the sky was falling and soon they were all in hysterics.

Well, when it comes to global warming, environmentalists have adopted a Chicken Little approach. Recent news reports have fanned global warming hysteria over the contents of a Bush administration report on climate change. Environmentalists focused on two sentences out of 255 pages to "prove" that permanent global warming is being caused by human activity and that major ecosystems will disappear, water supplies will be permanently disrupted and we will suffer an ever-increasing number of stifling heat waves.

"Environmental havoc" was the description of our future in The New York Times, which claims the report "unambiguously states that humans are the likely cause of most of the recent warming." Some talk radio hosts went further, claiming that cities such as Miami and Mobile would be underwater one day.

The 2002 Climate Change report needs to be read. It states that its own projections "are limited by the paucity (smallness) of data available." The report cautions "current estimates of the magnitude of future warmings should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments." Later the report states "definitive prediction of potential outcomes is not yet feasible."

The earth has been around for millions of years and one thing is certain: the weather changes dramatically. The earth has experienced ice ages as well as warming periods. The North and South poles are 50 degrees Fahrenheit colder than they were when dinosaurs roamed the earth and a vast tropical forest dominated North and South America. Our climate has remained somewhat stable for the last 10,000 years, with the exception of a Little Ice Age in the 14th century. In the 1970's, hearings took place on Capitol Hill about a coming Ice Age. Today, Capitol Hill hearings look at global warming. The political winds change faster than the weather.

Worrying about the weather is harmless until Congress actually believes it can do something about it. The problem is that solutions based on the belief that the "sky is falling" would drastically limit the amount of energy that we can use to run our businesses, homes, cars, computers and every aspect of our lives. Based on a Wharton study, the impacts of limiting our use of energy to reduce global warming gases – as proposed by the Kyoto Climate Change Treaty – would lower our annual gross domestic product by about $300 billion; cause the loss of more than 2.4 million jobs; and raise the annual energy bill for every household by $3,700. Even if the United States limited global warming gases, developing nations will not reduce their own emissions and the net impact would be zero.

The Bush Administration needs to stay on its course and continue to reject the Kyoto Treaty. It should spend the billion or so dollars needed to develop good science and sound computer models to evaluate the problem. It needs to ensure that developing nations use the most energy efficient technologies, so that emissions of global warming gases are reduced while these countries become more competitive.

Finally, the Bush administration needs to stop apologizing for using common sense. It can't change the weather. "Environmental havoc" makes for catchy headlines, but the story is clear: long-range climate forecasts are less accurate than the local weatherman. The best the Bush administration can do is what the King did for Chicken Little – buy umbrellas for the hysterical, but stay focused on sound environmental progress without compromising our economic recovery and jobs.

William L. Kovacs is the Vice President of Environment and Regulatory Affairs at the United States Chamber of Commerce.