U.S. Chamber Releases Seven State Polls Showing Voters Opposed to Current Health Care Proposal

WASHINGTON, D.C.—The U.S. Chamber of Commerce today released public opinion polls in seven key states – Alaska, Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Virginia – all of which showed voters in those states oppose current health care reform legislation, with substantial majorities saying it will increase the federal deficit and raise the cost of their health care. The polls were conducted November 8-10 by Ayres, McHenry & Associates to gauge support for health legislation currently being proposed.

"Polling clearly shows that voters in key states oppose the current direction of health care legislation," said Bruce Josten, executive vice president of government affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "The Chamber has been a strong advocate for reforms that improve access to quality care and lower costs but, like Americans throughout the country, we are very concerned about the legislation Congress is now considering."

Poll overview and summary:

On Sunday through Tuesday, November 8-10, Ayres, McHenry and Associates conducted statewide surveys on health care reform in Alaska, Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Virginia. This group of states includes three states that President Obama won last year including two states that he converted from "red" to "blue" by winning among independents (54 to 43 percent in Indiana and 49 to 48 percent in Virginia). This survey began after the House of Representatives passed their health care bill by a slim 220 to 215 margin, with 39 Democrats opposing.

Following are key points from the tracking surveys:

• Voters are overwhelmingly opposed to the current overall health care reform proposal. In the seven states tested, public opposition significantly outweighs support for the health reform legislation currently before Congress, with support never exceeding 40 percent:

Large majorities of independent voters in each of the seven states tested oppose the health reform currently being discussed in Congress.

Independents' Views on Overall Health Care Reform Being Discussed in Congress

More seniors oppose health care reform currently being discussed in Congress than support it in each of the seven states tested.

Seniors' Views on Overall Health Care Reform Being Discussed in Congress

Majorities of voters in all seven states agree that the reforms being discussed will raise their health care costs. Majorities in all states agree with this statement, with percentages usually in the 50s and reaching the 60s in Arkansas and Nebraska.

• Similarly, voters agree that "any new taxes and fees charged to health care companies will get passed on" to them. In each of the seven states, at least three-fifths of voters agree that "any new taxes and fees for health care companies will get passed on" to them.
• Independents are overwhelmingly opposed to the government-run public option in each of the seven states. That crucial swing group now opposes government-run health care by at least 2-to-1 in Nebraska, Louisiana, Arkansas, Indiana, and North Carolina, and opposes it by double digits but less than 2-to-1 in Virginia, and Alaska. In Arkansas, opposition among independents is a breathtaking 75 to 17 percent.
• Seniors are opposed to the government-run public option in these seven states. Opposition among seniors ranges from a high of 54 points in Arkansas (74 to 20 percent) down to 8 points in Virginia (44 to 36 percent).
• Significant majorities in all states, with margins of about 2-to-1, think $400 billion in Medicare cuts will harm health care for seniors. Agreement is remarkably consistent across the seven states, with agreement ranging from 54 percent in Alaska up to 67 percent in Arkansas. Seniors agree with this view by roughly the same proportions as voters who are younger.
• Raising taxes usually ranks first as the top concern, with roughly equal percentages for increasing the deficit, increasing premiums, dropping coverage, and cutting Medicare. Raising taxes ranks first by a small margin in Nebraska, Louisiana, Arkansas, Indiana, North Carolina, and Alaska. Increasing the deficit narrowly ranks first in Virginia. But all five issues provoke concern.

Methodology

These seven statewide surveys were conducted November 8-10, 2009 by telephone with live interviewers, with 600 respondents in Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Virginia, and 500 respondents in Alaska. All respondents were selected randomly from a list of registered voters in the state, and confirmed their registration. Quotas were set by race, gender, and geography consistent with previous elections.

The margin of error for responses with an even split – 50 percent for one response and 50 percent for another response – is plus or minus 4.00 percent for 600 respondents and plus or minus 4.38 percent for 500 respondents. The margin of error is smaller when one response receives a higher level of support. For example, the margin of error when 75 percent of respondents choose one response and 25 percent choose another response is plus or minus 3.46 percent for 600 respondents and is plus or minus 3.80 percent for 500 respondents.

The U.S. Chamber is the world's largest business federation representing more than 3 million businesses and organizations of every size, sector, and region.

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