Small Business Outlook: Cautious Optimism Continues

The two-month dip in small business confidence and scaled back hiring and revenue expectations on Main Street are economic warning signs.

Tariff Refund FAQ Guide: Visit this guide for information to help small businesses identify whether they paid IEEPA‑based tariffs and prepare for the emerging refund process.

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ICYMI: As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark unveiled a bold vision for how the business community can help shape the nation’s next chapter. Watch here.

New Small Business Data

WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (March 25, 2026)

Summary: Plans to increase investment remain steady while uncertainty erased Main Street gains from January and February.

• 23% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (4 points lower than February) and 35% say the economy has gotten worse (5 points worse than February).
• 25% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (11 points lower than February) and 33% believe the economy will worsen (12 points worse than February).
• 52% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (3 points lower than February) and 9% plan on decreasing employees (no change from February).
• 36% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (2 points higher than February and 49% expect fixed expenditures to remain the same.
• 64% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (7 points lower than February) and 9% believe revenues will decrease (1 point worse than February).
• 52% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (8 points lower than February) and 17% believe that profitability will decrease (9 points worse than February).
• 50% of small business owners do not expect the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs to impact their business.

National Small Business Association (NSBA) 2026 Economic Outlook (March 20, 2026)

Summary: Small business owners are less pessimistic about the economy than a year ago and are split on whether the U.S. will experience an expansion or a recession in the next 12-months.

• 31% of small business owners believe the national economy is doing better than 6-months ago (10 points higher than a year ago) and 46% believe the national economy is worse (13 points better than a year ago).
• 66% of small business owners feel confident about the future of their business.
• 37% of small businesses increased revenue over the past 12-months and 56% expect increased revenues over the next 12-months.
• 39% of small businesses decreased revenue over the past 12-months and 20% expect decreased revenue over the next 12-months.
• 18% of small businesses increased staff over the past 12-months and 21% decreased.
• 46% of small businesses increased pay and benefits for their employees over the past 12-months and 5 % decreased compensation.
• 48% of small business owners cited economic uncertainty as their top concern and 49% of small business owners stated that access to capital is not a challenge impacting their business (highest of 9 possible answers when asked about access to capital).
• 46% of small businesses have been directly or indirectly negatively impacted by tariffs ad 34% have not been impacted.
• 32% of small business owners expect an economic expansion in the next 12-months, 32% expect a recession and 71% of small businesses are already growing or expect to grow within the next 12-months.

Small Business Fast Facts

Small Business Data Center

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Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices Survey (March 17, 2026)

Summary: Small businesses are still in the early stages of fully integrating AI and Main Street is bullish on productivity and revenue gains from the technology.

• 76% of small business owners said they are currently using AI and 14% are fully integrating AI into their core operations.
• 93% of small business owners who use AI report a positive impact on their business.
• 84% of small business owners who use AI cite “increased efficiency and productivity” as the main benefit from using AI.
• 87% of small business owners who use AI report that the technology is augmenting the work of employees and not replacing them.
• 67% of small business owners who use AI expect increased revenue from its use.
• 50% of small business owners who use AI cite concerns with data privacy and security as their top challenge with use of the technology, followed by lack of technical expertise (49%), and difficulty choosing the right AI tools (48%).

SBE Council Small Business Technology Use Survey (March 11, 2026)

Summary: Small businesses continue their rapid adoption of AI and investment in technology to compete more effectively in 2026.

• 90% of small business owners are confident in their ability to adopt AI and digital tools.
• 51% of small business owners are “gung ho” about AI, 26% are cautiously optimistic, and 9% express negative feelings towards AI.
• 53% of small business owners believe AI will have a major impact on their industry and the median annual expenditure on AI is $2,200.
• 2/3 of small business owners report revenue gains attributed to AI.
• Small business owners report AI saved an average of 5 hours per week through the use of AI.
• 52% of small business owners see AI as complimentary to workers and 8% believe AI is a substitute for workers.

NFIB February Small Business Optimism Index (March 10, 2026)

Summary: Actual sales continue to tick up while sales expectations and capital expenditures tick downward.

• 18% of small business owners expect the economy to improve in the next 3-months (3 points lower than January).
• 15% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (no change since January).
• 1% of small businesses reported higher sales in the past 3-months (7 points better than January) and 8% of small business owners expect higher sales in the next 3-months (8 points lower than January).
• 24% of small businesses raised their prices in January (2 points lower than January) and 28% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (4 points lower than January).
• 54% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (6 points lower than January) and 18% are planning capital purchases in the next 6-months (no change from January).
• -5% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (2 points worse than January).
• Small businesses paid an average rate for short maturity loans of 8.2% (0.9 points lower than January) and 25% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis (no change from December and January).

GoDaddy Small Business Research Lab Report (March 3, 2026)

Summary: Sustained growth in new business formation moves in tandem with sustained GDP growth.

• 1% increase in establishment births is associated with 0.18% higher GDP growth, 0.16% higher payroll job growth, and a 0.15% decline in unemployment.
• One new technology-based small business in a zip code is associated with 2.9 more local payroll jobs and has a multiplier effect of 0.3 new establishments.

Honoring America's Top Small Businesses

Celebrating America's Top 100 Small Businesses

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2026 Report on Employer Firms from the Federal Reserve 2025 Small Business Credit Survey (March 3, 2026)

Summary: Revenue and employment growth on Main Street generally remained steady from 2024-2025 and expectations for future growth declined.

• 57% of small business owners viewed reaching customers and growing sales as their top challenge in 2025 followed by 46% who reported challenges with finding, hiring, and retaining workers.
• 48% of small firms reported sourcing from companies outside the U.S. and 84% of those firms reported input price increases throughout 2025.
• 31% of small business owners reported they were debt free and 59% of small businesses with debt secured it with a personal guarantee.
• 42% of small businesses received the amount of financing they wanted in 2025 and small business applicants at small banks were most likely to be fully approved for the requested financing (57%) compared to other lender types.

MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q4 (December 10, 2025)

Summary: Index shows a dip in confidence, revenue expectations, cash flow, and plans for investment. Inflation remains the top concern albeit trending downward. Note: Survey was in the field during the government shutdown.

• 70% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (2 points lower than last quarter) and 74% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points lower than last quarter).
• 43% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (3 points lower) and 28% are negative (4 points worse than last quarter).
• 38% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (2 points lower than last quarter) and 44% are negative (2 points worse than last quarter).
• 45% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (1point lower than last quarter and the 16^thconsecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 65% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 23% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (5 points less than last quarter) and 68% reported keeping the same number of staff (4 points higher than last quarter).
• 42% of small business owners expect to increase staff in the next year (2 points lower than last quarter) and 49% expect to maintain current staffing levels (3 points higher than last quarter).
• 17% of small business owners cited employee retention as their top concern (highest level in 8 ½ years).

Explore More Small Business Insights

The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

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About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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