Small Business Outlook: Small Businesses Remain Resilient, Expect Sales and Revenue to Improve

Confidence among small business owners, especially among higher revenue earners and AI adopters, remains elevated and gas prices in May curbed Main Street’s plans for growth.

Tariff Refund FAQ Guide: Visit this guide for information to help small businesses identify whether they paid IEEPA‑based tariffs and prepare for the emerging refund process.

Navigating the New Tax Law: Don't miss our practical guide to maximizing savings for small businesses under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”

ICYMI: As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark unveiled a bold vision for how the business community can help shape the nation’s next chapter. Watch here.

New Small Business Data

Citizens Q3 2026 Business Pulse (June 30, 2026)

Insight Summary: Main Street employers maintain staffing and credit plans while expecting revenue growth in the next 3 months.

• 50% of small business owners expect revenue to grow in the next 3 months (highest level this year).
• 24% of small business owners are confident in the U.S. economy (12 points lower than Q2).
• 51% of small business owners view rising costs and inflation as top concern followed by economic uncertainty (43%) and attracting and keeping customers (39%).
• 64% of small business owners plan to keep the same number of employees for the next 3 months and 18% are planning on adding staff.
• 67% of small business owners are not planning on changing their use of credit for the next 3 months.

WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (June 26, 2026)

Insight Summary: Growth expectations for small businesses pick up and hiring plans level off because of inflationary pressures on the labor market.

• 18% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (3 points higher than May) and 48% say the economy has gotten worse (4 points worse than May).
• 27% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (2 points better than May) and 30% believe the economy will worsen (4 points better than May).
• 47% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (no change from May) and 11% plan on decreasing employees (no change from May).
• 38% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (5 points higher than May).
• 62% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (5 points higher than May) and 12% believe revenues will decrease (2 points better than May).
• 48% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (5 points higher than May) and 18% believe that profitability will decrease (3 points better than May).

Upwork Research Institute Q1 2026 Business Leader Landscape (June 10, 2026)

Insight Summary: 26% of employers with businesses of 10-99 employees use AI agents and these data reflect their views.

• 62% of AI agent user small businesses are very confident in handing high-stakes tasks to AI agents.
• 33% of AI agent user small businesses consider use of AI agents mission-critical to company strategy.
• 27% of AI agent user small businesses are concerned with data security and compliance and 24% are concerned with uncertainty around the return on investment (ROI) for AI agents.
• 41% of AI agent user small businesses utilize agents for decision support and 36% use agents for information retrieval. 34% use agents for workflow automation, 34% use agents for multistep planning, and 30% use for autonomous task execution.
• 74% of AI agent user small businesses report productivity improvements and most improvements have not surpassed the 25% mark.
• Just under half of AI agent user small businesses cite data privacy and security as top barriers for additional adoption.

US Bank Small Business Perspective 2026 (June 22, 2026)

Insight Summary: Gen Z small business owners are more likely to use AI and report higher plans for growth.

• 24% of Gen Z small business owners (ages 14-29) are willing to explore high-growth strategies compared to 21% of Millennial small business owners (ages 30-45) and 13% of Gen X small business owners (ages 46-61).
• 87% of small business owners view their firms as successful (9 points lower than 2025) and 83% feel optimistic about the next 12-months (10 points lower than 2025).
• 78% of Gen Z small business owners reported business growth over the past year and 76% of Millennials small business owners report the same. 54% of Baby Boomer small business owners (ages 62-80) reported growth and 56% of Gen X small business owners reported growth.
• Of those small business owners who reported growth, 70% said they hired more employees. 62% said they are investing capital in their business, and 51% said their expansion was through launching new products or services.
• 81% of small business owners in growth mode are using AI compared to 64% of non-growth mode small business reporting AI use.
• 90% of small business owners cite “economic environment” as their top concern and 88% cite increased costs/inflation as their top concern. 71% of small business owners cite access to capital as their top concern (lowest by ranking of top ten stressors).

Intuit QuickBooks 2026 AI Impact Report (June 18, 2026)

Insight Summary: Small businesses use AI as a competitive advantage, especially among growth-oriented firms.

• 77% of small businesses in the U.S. use AI regularly (29 points higher than 2024).
• 78% of small businesses say AI has improved their productivity (32 points higher than 2024).
• 43% of small businesses say AI has increased their revenue and 2% say it has reduced revenue.
• 17% of small businesses report that AI has increased hiring (4 times the amount of small businesses that report AI has replaced workers).
• 27% of small businesses report that AI has shortened their workdays (3 points higher than 2025) and 8% report that AI has made their workdays longer (3 points lower than 2025).
• 86% of small businesses that paid for AI in 2024 are keeping (and paying for) the technology.
• Growth-oriented small businesses are twice as likely to invest in AI as lifestyle-oriented firms.

Bank of America Institute Small Business Checkpoint (June 18, 2026)

Insight Summary: Higher gas prices continued to hit small businesses hard through May.

• Aggregated credit and debit gas spending per small business client is up 34% compared to a year ago in May (3 points higher than April).
• The share of gasoline in total small business credit and debit continued to rise in May and now accounts for 1/3 of the total card spending share.
• Profitability in the following sectors flipped from negative in April to positive in May: construction, finance, and manufacturing.
• Payroll shrank for small businesses compared to May of 2025 except for the following sectors: restaurants and bars; museums, art galleries, and gardens.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation Main Street AI Monitor (June 17, 2026)

Insight Summary: Employees are driving AI usage at small businesses.

• 43% of small businesses with 2-9 employees use AI for work tasks, and 59% of small businesses with 100-249 employees use AI for work tasks.
• 50% of small business employees use AI at work and of those who use it, 58% report using AI regularly.
• Among small business employees who use AI at work:
  • 59% use AI to complete more work or improve quality.
  • 43% use AI for learning, planning, or reviewing existing tasks.
  • 27% use AI to take on additional responsibilities or stretch assignments.
• Among small business employees who use AI and do knowledge-based work (not manual or physical labor):
  • 90% use AI for writing and editing communications.
  • 88% use AI for research and information gathering.
  • 86% use AI for technical and coding work.
  • 85% use AI for creative tasks such as design.
• 19% of small business employees say that use of AI at work is driven primarily by employees exploring AI tools on their own, and 11% say that AI use is directed by the owner or leadership.
• 10% of small business employees have received formal AI training from their employer.
• When asked about barriers for adoption:
  • 47% cite privacy or security concerns.
  • 41% are unclear how AI applies to their specific job.
  • 41% cite lack of skills or training.

Fiserv April Small Business Index (June 3, 2026)

Insight Summary: Consumer spending stalled for 2^nd consecutive month.

• Month over month sales at small businesses were flat for two consecutive months in May (0.0% change) and year over year sales continued to go up (+0.7% change).

FedEx Small Business Trade Index (May 21, 2026)

Insight Summary: Small businesses remain bullish on trade amidst tariff uncertainty.

• 91% of small business decision makers favor expanding trade and 87% believe trade creates jobs, improves business prospects, and boosts the economy.
• More than 84% of small business decision makers agree that technology is making trade more efficient.
• 46% of small business decision makers plan on investing in technology in the next 12-months to better manage international logistics, customs, or compliance.
• 30% of small business decision makers cite local customers as the reason why the business does not export goods or services followed by tariffs (25%) and too many regulations (12%).
• 44% of small business decision makers are holding inventory in response to global disruptions and 36% are sourcing back to the U.S.

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The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

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About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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