Published
September 10, 2026
America's Workforce Challenge: Why Economic Growth Requires More Workers
Workforce growth is slowing just as demand for workers continues to rise. As population growth slows and more Americans retire, employers across the economy are struggling to fill critical jobs. Around 2030, deaths are projected to exceed births in the United States, meaning future workforce growth will depend increasingly on immigration. Without enough workers, economic growth slows.
Three Facts to Know
1. We face a demographic turning point
- Deaths are projected to exceed births around 2030–2031, reducing the natural growth of the U.S. population and workforce.
- The population aged 65 and older grew nearly five times faster than the total population between 1920 and 2020. In 2023, retirements hit record highs.
2. Employers need more workers
- There are not enough workers available to fill every open position.
- There are 8.1 million unfilled jobs and 6.9 million workers to fill them.
3. Workforce growth drives economic growth
- When businesses cannot find workers, projects are delayed, investments are constrained, supply chains weaken, and economic growth slows.
U.S. demographics
U.S. natural population growth is projected to end around 2030
Annual live births and deaths, 2000–2025 actual; 2026–2040 projected
Sources: CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System, 2000–2025; Congressional Budget Office, The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056 (January 2026). 2025 data are provisional; 2026–2040 values are projected.
Workforce Shortages Are Affecting Critical Industries
| Sector | Workforce Pressure | Economic Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Health Care | Legal immigrants are more than 18% of the health care workforce; nurse unemployment is ~1.6%. | Staffing shortages strain patient care, long-term care, and care access. |
| Construction | 202,000 openings reported in February 2026; nearly 90% of employers report vacancies. | Projects are delayed, housing supply is constrained, and costs rise. |
| Manufacturing | 313,000 durable goods manufacturing openings remained unfilled as of April 2025. | Output is capped and supply chains face pressure. |
| Small Business | 41% report trouble filling vacancies; more than 90% have struggled to find qualified applicants. | Growth, productivity, and customer service are limited. |
| Agriculture | ~116,200 annual openings (BLS/USDA); avg. farmer age 58.1 yrs. | Seasonal labor gaps, harvest shortfalls, and supply chain disruptions. |
| Hospitality | ~979,000 open positions (BLS JOLTS, 2026); ~200,000 jobs still below 2019 levels; foreign-born workers = ~24% of workforce. | Service disruptions, reduced capacity, and staffing pipeline failures. |
| Information Technology | Foreign-born workers make up ~20–25% of the U.S. tech workforce. U.S. cybersecurity workforce gap alone exceeds 700,000 unfilled positions. | Reduced foreign talent pipeline slows innovation. Unfilled roles leave critical infrastructure exposed and erode U.S. competitiveness in the global technology race. |
| Hospitality | ~979,000 open positions with ~24% of workforce being foreign-born. | Service disruptions, reduced capacity, and staffing pipeline failures |
H-2B Seasonal Workers
The H-2B seasonal worker visa allows U.S. employers to legally fill temporary, nonagricultural seasonal jobs, yet it remains constrained by an annual cap of just 66,000 visas from which there still is no permanent statutory relief. As shown, certified demand for FY2025–26 has reached 275,971 positions, more than 4x the statutory cap, leaving 209,971 positions unfilled beyond the limit.
H-2B seasonal workers
The statutory cap against certified demand
This demand spans every state across the country, reflecting widespread and growing reliance on seasonal workers in industries like hospitality, landscaping, and seafood processing. A modernized H-2B program with expanded visa numbers is essential to meeting America's real seasonal workforce needs.
H-2B seasonal workers
Certified positions by industry sector, FY2025–26
Source: DOL OFLC FY2025–26.
H-2B seasonal workers
Certified positions by state, FY2025–26
Source: DOL OFLC FY2025–26 H-2B employer data. Certified positions are job openings the government approved employers to fill; certification does not guarantee a visa. 10,908 positions (3.8%) carry no state in the source file and are excluded from the map.
H-1B Speciality Visas
The H-1B visa program supports workers with highly specialized knowledge across virtually every sector and every state in America — reaching far beyond large technology companies into industries that form the backbone of local and national economies. In FY2025–26, more than one-third of employers petitioned for just a single visa, underscoring how deeply small businesses rely on the program. A modernized, market-aligned H-1B system is essential to sustaining innovation, supporting small businesses, and keeping America competitive.
H-1B high-skilled visas
Innovation share and employer size
Source: USCIS FY2025 Annual Report (petitions filed). Employer-size figures describe the share of employers petitioning, not the share of visas.
H-1B high-skilled visas
Relative employer presence by sector
Source: Fact sheets published by USCIS (US Citizenship and Immigration Services). Note: Dominant = ≥ 45%, High = 8% – 15%, Moderate = 3% – 7%, Smaller = 0.5% – 2%, Niche = < 0.5%.
H-1B employers operate in all 50 states, from high-concentration hubs like California, Texas, and New York to smaller, rural states like Wyoming, Vermont, and Alaska.
H-1B high-skilled visas
Where H-1B employers are located
Note: States are grouped by their share of U.S. H-1B employer petitions — petitions filed by employers in the state divided by the national employer-petition total. High concentration is 5% or more; broad participation is 1%–4.9%; lower-volume / rural is under 1%.
Tourism and Business Travel
International travel is a powerful economic engine — and recent declines are putting American jobs and communities at risk in every state. In 2025, travelers spent approximately $1.4 trillion nationwide, supporting more than 15 million American jobs, with international visitors alone contributing roughly $173–175 billion annually — making travel America's largest services export. As shown, reduced inbound tourism in 2025 is projected to cost billions in lost revenue across all 50 states, from tourism-dependent economies like Hawaii and Nevada to major hubs like California, New York, and Texas. A secure, efficient, and welcoming travel environment isn't just good policy — it's essential to protecting American jobs and sustaining economic growth nationwide.
International travel & tourism
State exposure to reduced travel, 2025 vs. 2024
Source: DC figures from washington.org. Note: Revenue-change and jobs-impact figures are published as estimates, derived at a constant ratio of roughly 10,700 jobs per $1 billion; they are modeled, not observed. Fifty states and DC; the source publishes no figure for territories.
About the authors
Patrick Shen
Patrick Shen is vice president for Immigration Policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Shawn Lukose
Shawn Lukose is the Economist and Senior Research Analyst at the Chamber. His portfolio consists of a variety of research and analysis initiatives that track the health of the United States economy, with a focus on labor and workforce.
