Published
December 16, 2025
The Q4 2025 RSM US Middle Market Business Index, in partnership with the U.S. Chamber, rose to 131.5, up from 123.3 the prior quarter, as middle market leaders report gains and optimistic future expectations on revenue.
Over half (52%) of respondents reported an increase in general revenues and 58% expect revenues to rise further over the next six months. Half of all survey respondents reported higher net earnings, and 56% expect that trend to continue in the first half of next year.
Commenting on the optimism, Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US, said during a recent livestream event that the economic boost from tax reform (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) should not be underestimated.
“We’re going to get quite the tailwind from the tax cut,” Brusuelas said. “Cash is going to start flowing. I expect the economy to grow next year well above trend.”
Those improved revenues and earnings expectations helped fuel improvement in capital expenditures, with 48% stating they increased outlays in the current quarter and 53% anticipating doing so over the next two quarters.
Inflation and Pricing Pressures Persist
At the same time, inflation is having an impact with 71% of firms paying higher prices and 72% anticipating higher costs in the coming months. Likewise, views of the economy are downbeat, with 36% saying it has deteriorated.
Respondents remained sour on the overall economy, with only 38% saying the economy improved while 36% stated it had deteriorated. Nearly half (46%) expect the economy to improve over the next six months, and 32% anticipate it will weaken.
There are also some indications of unease as firms grapple with increasing pricing pressures. That concern is consistent with the increase in inflation over the past year—3.6% on a three-month annualized basis. Nearly three-quarters, or 71%, of midmarket firms surveyed reported a rise in prices paid.
In fact, 72% of survey participants said they expect to pay higher prices through the middle of next year. Also, 61% of middle market firms report that they have hiked prices this quarter and 64% indicate they intend to do so over the next six months.
Hiring and Growth Expectations for 2026
Neil Bradley, Executive Vice President, Chief Policy Officer, and Head of Strategic Advocacy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce said that potential tariffs refunds and tax relief could have an expansionary role on the economy next year—but that some aspects of trade and immigration policy were holding back the economy from its full potential.
“The first half of next year, we really are going to push a lot of juice into the economy,” Bradley said. “A more targeted approach on tariffs, a better approach on workforce and immigration, and we would have been flirting with 2.8%, 2.9% growth this year…We need to be focused on getting more permanent wind in our sails and figuring out how to dial it up to three percent growth.”
In the current quarter, only 40% of respondents reported they increased hiring, up from 34% previously, while 50% signaled an intent to do so through the middle of next year. Likewise, half of the executives surveyed reported increasing compensation, while 55% stated they would lift compensation in the coming months.
The RSM survey asked 405 senior executives at middle market businesses about their views on economic conditions, both for the past quarter and looking six months ahead. The data was gathered from Oct. 1- Oct. 22, 2025.
About the author
Thaddeus Swanek
Thaddeus is a senior writer and editor with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's strategic communications team.
