Published
November 05, 2026
As the administration prepares to finalize its offshore leasing program in the near future, these discussions must also consider the immense resources available in the South-Central Gulf.
Opening the South-Central Gulf of America to oil and natural gas leasing could support more than 133,000 jobs, $11.3 billion in annual GDP, and more than 470,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2040.
America is fortunate to have one of the world's most productive offshore energy basins in its own backyard. The Gulf of America currently produces roughly 2 million barrels of oil per day and supports an extensive network of American workers, manufacturers, ports, vessels, and service companies.
There is room to build on that strength.
As the Trump administration develops the next National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program, the Department of the Interior is evaluating potential new areas for offshore leasing. Among them is Program Area B in the South-Central Gulf of America.
A recent analysis commissioned by the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimates that beginning lease sales in the South-Central Gulf in 2029 could, by 2040:
- Support more than 470,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in new American energy production;
- Support more than 133,000 jobs;
- Contribute $11.3 billion annually to U.S. GDP;
- Generate $13.1 billion in annual capital investment and industry spending; and
- Produce nearly $1.5 billion annually in government revenues.
The potential comes at a time when America’s need for reliable, affordable energy is growing.
Today’s Leasing Decisions Shape Future Energy Supply
Offshore projects require significant investment and can take five to seven years or longer to move from a lease sale to first production. Once online, they can produce American energy for decades. That long timeline makes predictable access essential to future supply.
Given these decades-long lead times, projects producing energy into the 2030s and 2040s will be shaped by access decisions made today. Indeed, leasing becomes less a question of immediate production and more a debate around preserving America’s ability to build options into future scenarios. Those same decisions determine whether future policymakers, businesses, and workers will have the opportunity to develop those resources if economic conditions, demand, or national priorities need it.
Congress took an important step last year by establishing a predictable schedule of 30 Gulf of America lease sales over 15 years. The administration’s next offshore leasing program can build on that foundation by evaluating additional areas for future development.
But the question is not whether every available resource needs to be developed: Rather, it’s whether America should preserve the ability to develop promising resources into the future. Maintaining access to prospective areas creates flexibility, so it follows that closing off opportunities today will limit America’s choices tomorrow. The South-Central Gulf is well positioned to build on the Gulf’s existing strengths. It is adjacent to an established offshore energy ecosystem with the ports, vessels, manufacturers, infrastructure, expertise, and skilled workforce needed to support complex development. New access could put more of that American capacity to work.
More American Energy Supports Growth and Opportunity
The economic impact of offshore production reaches well beyond the Gulf Coast. Gulf oil and natural gas already support a supply chain reaching all 50 states, including manufacturers, fabricators, engineering firms, transportation and logistics companies, technology providers, and other businesses.
South-Central Gulf development could create additional demand across that supply chain while adding energy supply at a time when the U.S. economy is asking more of its energy system, further increasing our energy security.
Reliable, affordable energy is fundamental to a growing economy. It helps American businesses compete, supports investment and job creation, and keeps costs manageable for consumers. But offshore energy’s contribution to the American Dream goes beyond the energy it produces. The industry supports varied, accessible, and high-paying careers, with an average oil and natural gas industry wage of $69,650, 29% higher than the national average. These are the kinds of family-sustaining jobs that can provide a pathway to build a career, own a home, raise a family, and create a better future.
That combination of affordable American energy and good-paying American jobs helps create the economic conditions that make the American Dream possible. Additional production from areas like the South-Central Gulf could help strengthen that foundation as America’s energy needs grow.
Recent geopolitical events have also underscored the value of strong domestic energy production. While America cannot fully insulate itself from global oil market volatility, abundant domestic supply puts businesses and consumers in a stronger position when disruptions occur overseas.
More American production adds supply to the global market, helping put downward pressure on prices over time and providing consumers a greater buffer against volatility. It also keeps more investment, jobs, and economic activity here at home.
Build on an American Strength
America is investing in stronger domestic supply chains, expanded manufacturing, and new industries that will drive future economic growth. All require abundant, reliable energy. The Gulf of America provides a strong foundation, backed by generations of investment in infrastructure, technology, expertise, and a highly skilled workforce.
The South-Central Gulf offers a chance to build on that strength. Including the area in the next offshore leasing program would not guarantee development. It would allow companies to evaluate the resource, compete for leases, and determine whether projects make economic sense.
Preserving access does not predetermine future outcomes. It ensures that future policymakers have the option to deploy these resources if America's economic, strategic, or energy-security needs warrant doing so. Keeping the South-Central Gulf in play preserves an important option for meeting America’s future energy needs, with the potential to generate new investment, production, jobs, and economic growth for decades to come.
Because offshore energy development unfolds over decades, today’s decisions are ultimately ones about the options available to America tomorrow. Expanding American energy should, above all else, be about one thing: giving future generations access to the resources, infrastructure, workforce, and flexibility needed to support economic growth, strengthen energy security, and continue building American prosperity.
Preserving access to promising resources does not commit the nation to a particular course of action, but it helps ensure that Americans inherit opportunities rather than constraints.
About the author
Christopher Guith
Christopher Guith leads the development of the Energy Institute’s policies and messaging relating to oil and natural gas and nuclear energy.
