What If the Biden LNG Pause Had Never Been Lifted?

Few industries have done more to strengthen America’s role in the global economy than liquefied natural gas (LNG). A new S&P Global Energy study sponsored by the U.S. Chamber shows what the U.S. would have sacrificed if the Biden Administration’s LNG pause had become permanent.

In January 2024, the Biden administration announced a pause on approving new LNG export terminals to non-Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries, halting the process for 17 projects awaiting approval. The pause put one of America's fastest-growing industries in limbo threatening billions in investment, hundreds of thousands of jobs, and the energy security of U.S. allies. 

Rising to the Top

In little more than a decade, the U.S. has transformed from a net LNG importer into one of the world's leading LNG exporters, creating a $44 billion annual industry. 

By 2031, the U.S. is projected to supply more than one-third of the global LNG market and become America’s second-largest net export industry. And that growth has not come at the expense of American consumers. New LNG investment is expected to have a negligible effect on residential natural gas prices through 2031.

Real Money, Real Jobs

If the Biden LNG pause had never been lifted, the U.S. would have put one of its most important growth industries at risk. U.S. LNG has already contributed $515 billion to GDP to date, and the opportunity ahead is even larger. From 2025 to 2040, U.S. LNG is projected to contribute $1.4 trillion to GDP, support an average of 555,000 jobs annually, generate $206 billion in federal and state tax revenue, and drive $2.9 trillion in total revenues for U.S. businesses.

Those benefits are not limited to producing states. 42% of jobs and 33% of GDP contributions tied to LNG growth are expected to occur in non-gas-producing areas in manufacturing, construction, finance, logistics, and professional services sectors across the country.

The Price Myth, Debunked

Opponents have long argued that LNG exports would raise prices for American households, but while the U.S. natural gas market has grown dramatically, prices have remained among the most affordable globally.

The bigger affordability challenge is infrastructure. In regions like the Northeast, infrastructure bottlenecks rather than LNG exports drive winter price spikes. Targeted infrastructure expansion in the region could reduce peak winter prices by about 20% or more.

Global Cost of Constrained LNG Supply

If the pause had never been lifted, the consequences would extend well beyond the U.S. S&P Global’s “Extended Pause” scenario shows Europe and Asia facing LNG prices 50% higher by 2031, with up to $76 billion in costs shifted largely to non-U.S. suppliers, including Russia.

The bottom line: constraining U.S. LNG would mean fewer American jobs, less investment, higher energy costs for allies, and greater leverage for adversaries. American energy leadership is a source of economic strength, stability, and security across the globe