Africa's Role in the Global Critical Minerals Revolution

Ellington Arnold
Manager, U.S.-Africa Business Center, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Published

February 26, 2026

Some weeks ago, I found the usually tranquil streets of Cape Town, South Africa, had transformed into a chaotic, vibrant tapestry. The familiar calm had been supplanted by a cacophony of languages from over 120 nations. Trapped in traffic, where a 10-minute car journey stretches endlessly into the horizon, each moment challenged my carefully planned agenda. Yet, amidst the honking horns, Cape Town pulsed with an undercurrent of excitement, as it does every year during the African Mining Indaba.

a group of people posing for a photo — U.S. Chamber of Commerce's U.S.-Africa Business Center Ellington Arnold (far right) joins the leaders of regional AmChams and the U.S.-Africa Business Center (Kuseni Dlamini, Michelle Constant, Felicia Djibo, and Kendra Gaither).

What began in the 1990s as a modest gathering in a hotel ballroom is now the world’s largest mining investment conference, drawing more than 11,000 government leaders, investors, engineers, and entrepreneurs from around the globe. This year’s Mining Indaba, held February 9-12, was notable not just for the scale of the crowd, but rather the intensity of the moment: Critical minerals have gone from background inputs to front-line strategic assets. The global economy and its future run on critical minerals, the hidden circuitry powering AI, electrification, semiconductors, and modern manufacturing. We are witnessing a shift in global attention that has been building for years, and now, here in Cape Town, it fully arrived.

a sign on a wall — Africa Mining Indaba was held February 9-12 in Cape Town, South Africa.

Global demand for critical minerals is set to more than double by 2040. By 2050, nickel demand will have doubled, cobalt demand will have tripled, and lithium demand will have risen tenfold. Humanity has mined 620 million tons of copper throughout history—and over the next three decades, we will need nearly twice that amount. Without these minerals, there will be no continued AI revolution, no semiconductor boom, and no energy transition.

Amid worldwide demand, critical minerals supply remains starkly concentrated. A handful of countries control more than half of all global critical minerals output, with one nation, China, dominating the refining of multiple minerals, in some cases exceeding 90%. This dependency leaves the rest of the world exposed to geopolitical risk, bottlenecks, and price shocks. For years, the United States and many partners have outsourced the toughest parts of mining and processing to our own peril. That realization is underpinning how and what critical mineral security is now treated as a defining U.S. strategic priority.

This shift was unmistakable in Cape Town. The U.S. sent its largest delegation to Mining Indaba ever, signaling a renewed focus on resource security, commercial partnerships, and long-term supply chain resilience across the continent. The level of engagement reflected a shared urgency that these issues can no longer be left to market forces alone.

Throughout the week, we moved through countless meetings, whether a formal bilateral or a pull aside in a quiet corner. Everywhere we turned, leaders spoke with clarity, confidence, and a determination to shape the terms of the next century.

a group of people standing together — The U.S.-Africa Business Center team poses with Hon. Emmanuel Armah-Kofi Buah, Ghana’s Minister for Lands and Natural Resources.

One of the most vivid conversations came with Ghana’s Minister for Lands and Natural Resources, Hon. Emmanuel Armah-Kofi Buah: “It is time to rebuild the value chains.” Not as a slogan, but an active strategy. The Minister detailed how Ghana is strengthening regulation, rule of law, infrastructure, and workforce development while formalizing artisanal mining, integrating traceability, and aligning policies to give investors confidence. As Minister Buah described, industrialization is not optional. It is inevitable.

a group of people standing in front of a wall — AmCham Mali leaders Mohamed Siby and Hamadoun Cisse and the U.S.-Africa Business Center Kendra Gaither and Ellington Arnold at the Mali Exhibit at Africa Mining Indaba.

Jito Kayumba, Special Assistant to the President of Zambia, where annual copper production is on track to surpass one million tons, outlined the country’s ambition to grow beyond a giant in copper production and into a regional manufacturing hub. Zambia’s collaboration with the Democratic Republic of the Congo has already expanded to building refining capacity and a regional copperbelt value chain. Zambia does not want to simply export ore: It wants to become a center of industry.

But ambition meets real-world constraints. At the conference, we talked through the blunt truth with a senior bank executive: While the opportunity is massive, the cost of capital remains a choke point. Tools exist, he said, but they do not match the speed and structure the market demands. Mining companies in South Africa and Zambia echoed this. Demand is rising faster than capital can move. With the right financing, they can strengthen entire areas of U.S.-aligned supply chains. Without it, state-backed buyers will continue to outpace them.

a man in a suit talking to another man — Participants discuss opportunities for U.S. partnership in the mining sector at the U.S. Chamber-U.S. Commercial Service breakfast dialogue.

At a reception, a U.S. official captured the moment perfectly: “Everyone wants Africa’s minerals. Africa wants long-term partners, not more of the same.”

Much of what we heard throughout Indaba aligns with the recommendations we published in Strategic Ground, the U.S. Chamber’s report full of recommendations for strengthening U.S.–Africa critical mineral value chains. The emphasis on value capture, regulatory predictability, and competitive investment tools appeared in nearly every conversation.

a woman sitting at a table with a microphone and a book — U.S. Consul General to Cape Town Allison Areia (left), and Senior Commercial Officer to the U.S. Mission to South Africa Amy Benson (right), listen as Kendra Gaither opens the Indaba Breakfast Dialogue (center).

At a roundtable we co-hosted with the U.S. Commerce Department, the conversation, which included representatives from eight U.S. agencies and five embassies, made clear that collaborative tools must be aligned with commercial timelines. The United States cannot win by copying others. It must lean into its strengths: innovation, ingenuity, and technology.

Ideas came quickly: Using advanced geospatial and AI capabilities to accelerate exploration. Deploying modular refining technologies. Investing in Africa’s young workforce to anchor future industrial ecosystems. Programs like Project Vault can be catalytic, but only the private sector can turn frameworks into operating reality.

a group of people sitting at a table — U.S. Chamber's Ellington Arnold moderates a dialogue on the critical minerals ecosystem at the U.S. Chamber breakfast dialogue on the margins of African Mining Indaba

As Cape Town hummed around me, it was impossible to ignore the sense that this year marks a turning point. The world is waking up to the fact that minerals are no longer simply inputs, but rather the very foundation of the technologies and industries that will define the future.

Africa sits at the center of that awakening, and the urgency is matched only by the scale of the opportunity. Cape Town felt charged with it—with the intensity of a moment when possibility accelerates into reality, and the next era of global growth begins to reveal itself.