Analysis on the State-by-State Impact of New Tariffs on Mexico

Friday, May 31, 2019 - 1:15pm

WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new analysis by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce outlines the state-by-state impact of the administration’s plan to impose a 5% tariff on all goods from Mexico starting on June 10. The analysis shows the total value of 2018 goods imports from Mexico for all 50 states and the corresponding impact of imposing tariffs at the 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25% level.

The data clearly illustrate the heavy price to be paid by American families and consumers.

"Imposing tariffs on goods from Mexico is exactly the wrong move. These tariffs will be paid by American families and businesses without doing a thing to solve the very real problems at the border, said Neil Bradley, Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer, U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “Instead, Congress and the president need to work together to address the serious problems at the border."

A 5% tariff on imported goods from Mexico, which last year totaled $346.5 billion, would result in a potential tax increase on American businesses and consumers of $17 billion. Furthermore, that number would eclipse $86 billion should the tariffs reach the President’s threatened cap of 25%.

Trade with Mexico, which recently became the top U.S. trading partner, supports economic growth and jobs in every state. Businesses, workers, and families in the following states will be hit the hardest by this new action:

  • Texas ($5.35 billion tax): In total, Texas imported $107 billion worth of goods from Mexico in 2018.  A 5% tariff would threaten $5.35 billion of state imports while a 25% tariff would threaten $26.75 billion of state imports.
     
  • Michigan ($2.8 billion tax): In total, Michigan imported $56 billion worth of goods from Mexico in 2018.  A 5% tariff would threaten $2.8 billion of state imports while a 25% tariff would threaten $14 billion.
     
  • California ($2.2 billion tax): In total, California imported $44 billion worth of goods from Mexico in 2018.  A 5% tariff would threaten $2.2 billion of state imports while a 25% tariff would threaten $11 billion.
     
  • Illinois ($657.7 million tax): In total, Illinois imported $13.2 billion worth of goods from Mexico in 2018.  A 5% tariff would threaten $657.7 million of state imports while a 25% tariff would threaten $3.3 billion.
     
  • Ohio ($459.8 million tax): In total, Ohio imported $9.2 billion worth of goods from Mexico in 2018.  A 5% tariff would threaten $459.8 million of state imports while a 25% tariff would threaten $2.3 billion 
     
  • Arizona ($452.1 million tax): In total, Arizona imported $9 billion worth of goods from Mexico in 2018.  A 5% tariff would threaten $452.1 million of state imports while a 25% tariff would threaten $2.26 billion.

The analysis was compiled using data on state imports from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The full data set is available here.