What Businesses Are Saying About Future Price Increases

Every two weeks, the U.S. Census Bureau surveys approximately 200,000 business for their views on the economy. The survey includes questions regarding both expectations on the prices they expect to charge their customers and the prices they expect to pay.

Over the last two months, survey respondents, especially in retail, wholesale, and manufacturing, have increasingly indicated that they not only expect to pay more for goods and services over the next six months, but that they will also have to charge more themselves.

It’s not a coincidence this is occurring now that the real world effects of the Trump Administration’s broad tariffs are beginning to hit. The Chamber has been hearing for weeks from small businesses that are facing unprecedented challenges in the wake of these tariffs.  We’ve called on the Administration to institute an automatic exclusion for small businesses from tariffs. 

 The most recent survey, which concluded on May 4, found:

• 68.4% of  manufacturers  report that they expect the prices they  pay  to increase over the next six months;
• 64.3% of  wholesalers  report that they expect the prices they  pay  to increase over the next six months; and
• 63.8% of  retailers  report that they expect the prices they  pay  to increase over the next six months.

All three results are record highs since the survey began in September 2023.

The same survey also found:

• 48.6% of  manufacturers  report that they expect the prices they  charge  to increase over the next six months;
• 51.1% of  wholesalers  report that they expect the prices they  charge  to increase over the next six months; and
• 50.1% of  retailers  report that they expect the prices they  charge  to increase over the next six months.

Business will “eat” some of the costs they experience, but will also have to pass along some of the sudden cost increases in the form of higher prices. Which is exactly what business leaders in Texas told the Dallas Federal Reserve in a recent survey that they intend to do in response to tariffs.   In turn, that will increase prices for consumers, and certainly not help drive the economic growth our country needs. 

About the authors

Neil Bradley

Neil Bradley is executive vice president, chief policy officer, and head of strategic advocacy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He has spent two decades working directly with congressional committee chairpersons and other high-ranking policymakers to achieve solutions.

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Curtis Dubay

Curtis Dubay is Chief Economist, Economic Policy Division at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He heads the Chamber’s research on the U.S. and global economies.

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