Published
October 21, 2025
Growth amid mounting uncertainty.
That’s how IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described the current moment as she raised the curtain on the annual fall meeting of the IMF/World Bank last week. Delegates echoed her take in a slew of meetings outlining this moment’s risks – and its opportunities.
At the center of the activity were a series of Chamber convenings for both delegates and members, held by International Affairs Division teams for Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The Chamber’s U.S. Africa Business Center held a particularly well-time forum on critical minerals.
Georgieva noted the growth forecast – released as part of the IMF World Economic Outlook – is for 3.1% over the coming year, based on improved policy fundamentals, private sector adjustments, supportive financial conditions and tariff policies that – for now – have been less disruptive than anticipated.
“The economy is not doing poorly thanks to the AI boom,” said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Govinchas, in an exclusive interview with the Chamber’s Global Intelligence Desk, broadcast live for our members from the IMF headquarters.
“So you put all of this together, and yes, the tariff shock is hitting the U.S. and the world economy,” Govinchas said. “We have this elevated uncertainty, we have these trade tensions, but there have been other forces that have helped to mitigate that shock.”
See the Chamber's Activity at IMF/World Bank Week
'How is the world economy coping?'
During our conversations with delegates, they focused on what will need to be managed to maintain momentum:
Fragmentation – Geopolitical tensions are driving trading partners, in some cases, to form new blocs and a debate has ensued over how much it will cost businesses – and the global economy – to reroute supply chains.
Rearming Europe – The threat of Russian aggression has Europe rethinking its own security posture with most governments promising to ramp up spending on defense. But the Chamber assessment is the E.U. defense industrial base won’t be able to achieve those goals alone, creating opportunities for our members.
Technology – The promise of artificial intelligence is clear to all to see, and many ministers anticipate significant productivity gains, but some delegates worried about the near-term disruptions particularly to the labor force.
Sovereign debt – The IMF released a forecast for global public debt to reach 100% of GDP by the year 2029, and many policymakers attending the meeting called on governments to seize the current moment to restore growth, trim spending & boost revenues, so as to be ready to the inevitable shocks to come.
All told, the member countries of the IMF and World Bank are doing well with the hands they have been dealt, but to battle the uncertainty, vigilance will be key.
“How is the world economy coping?” asked Georgieva. “Short answer: better than feared, but worse than we need.”
About the author
Jay Sapsford
Jay Sapsford is Senior Vice President of the Chamber’s Global Intelligence Desk and helps lead the Chamber’s efforts in assessing geopolitical and economic risks that impact the business community. He plays a key role in identifying global trends, risks, and opportunities on behalf of the Chamber’s membership.
