Projecting Future Changes in Tariff Levels

One of the most frequent questions the Chamber is asked is, "What is likely to happen to tariff levels going forward?"

It is a question that is almost impossible to answer given the combination of the President's willingness to modify tariffs on an almost weekly basis, the outcome of pending litigation, and the range of tariff authorities available to the President.

However, by analyzing the President's existing, proposed, and suspended tariff policies, it is possible to develop a cone of probability that captures the range of most likely outcomes over the next several months.

While far from certain, we believe that over the next six months, tariff rates are likely to be meaningfully higher than they are today, but not as high as the rates that briefly went into effect on April 2 ("Liberation Day").

Our projection for higher tariff levels is driven by:

1. The likely imposition of additional sectoral tariffs (Sec. 232) such as those imposed on steel, aluminum, and autos;
2. The unlikelihood that new trade deals will significantly reduce the 10% "baseline" tariff or the sectoral tariffs;
3. The tenuous state of the tariff pause in effect between the United States and China and the United States and the EU, which is slated to end in August 2025 and July 2025, respectively;
4. The possibility of reinstating, though potentially at a lower level, the proposed "reciprocal" tariffs for 57 large trading partners that ranged as high as 50%; and
5. The ability of the President to replace many of the IEEPA tariffs if they are struck down by the court using other tariff authorities (though not immediately in every case).

See the projection data below and download the memo for more information.

About the authors

Neil Bradley

Neil Bradley is executive vice president, chief policy officer, and head of strategic advocacy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He has spent two decades working directly with congressional committee chairpersons and other high-ranking policymakers to achieve solutions.

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John G. Murphy

John Murphy directs the U.S. Chamber’s advocacy relating to international trade and investment policy and regularly represents the Chamber before Congress, the administration, foreign governments, and the World Trade Organization.

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