Price Freezes and AI-Powered Shopping Tools Attract Back-to-School Shoppers

Why it matters:

• Back-to-school spending is expected to be slightly down this year, according to the 2025 Deloitte Back-to-School Survey—about $30.9 billion, vs. $31.3 billion a year ago.
• Retailers are promoting price freezes after stockpiling inventory and pursuing alternative manufacturing sources amid tariff concerns, just as they incorporate AI-powered product discovery tools like personal shopping assistants into consumers’ shopping journey for the back-to-school period, the second-biggest selling season behind the year-end holidays.
• Resale and thrift stores are gaining traction as consumer destinations for savings, although mass merchants and online retailers are capturing the biggest increase in BTS shoppers.

Retailers are seeking to offer shoppers a safe haven from economic turbulence by freezing prices on back-to-school (BTS) basics, stockpiling inventory from overseas to avoid tariff costs, and offering artificial intelligence (AI) tools to help consumers find bargains.

Consumer concern about the economy has already started to impact purchasing patterns during this back-to-school shopping season, as retail spending has been trending down in recent months, according to data from the National Retail Federation. Total retail sales in June were down 0.33% compared with June of last year. The CNBC/NRF monthly survey, conducted by Affinity Solutions, showed that June spending was down in every category tracked except digital products.

Amid an uncertain economic environment, many consumers are looking for deals more aggressively this back-to-school season and spreading their purchases out over a longer time frame.

Spending on back-to-school items—considered the second-biggest season behind only the year-end holidays—is expected to decline slightly from a year ago, according to the 2025 Deloitte Back-to-School Survey. Total spending is projected at $30.9 billion, compared with $31.3 billion a year ago.

Adjusting to tariffs by stockpiling inventory, diversifying product sourcing, and leaning into consumer interest in American-made goods

Executing deals and promotions this back-to-school season is proving especially challenging for retailers as they navigate a tariff environment in seemingly constant flux.

“Retailers are using a mix of sourcing ingenuity, pricing strategy, and promotional savvy to navigate economic challenges,” said Madhav Pitaliya, an Analyst at Coresight Research, in a recent podcast.

Both consumers and retailers have modified their approach to the season this year because of the potential impact of tariffs on imported goods, which account for a significant share of the season’s merchandise, he said.

Many retailers began stockpiling inventory earlier this year to get ahead of the tariffs, Pitaliya said.

In addition to helping manage their cost of goods, the fact that retailers stockpiled inventory ahead of the season could also help them maintain in-stock levels throughout the summer, he said.

Meanwhile, with specific tariffs still up in the air, manufacturers and retailers are exploring options to avoid their potential costs, such as diversifying their sourcing and reshoring production of goods to the United States, if possible. Retailers that have their own private-label product lines might have an advantage because of the control they have over production, Pitaliya said.

Another potential impact of the tariffs: consumer interest in American-made goods. Nearly half of consumers—48%—said they planned to buy American-made products as much as possible for the BTS season, including 62% of Gen Z, 47% of millennials, and 48% of Gen X, according to the Deloitte research.

[Read more: Key Solutions Retailers Are Focusing on to Drive Growth This Year]

Projecting stability amid inflation concerns with price freezes on core items

Amid ongoing consumer concern about inflation and their back-to-school budgets, retailers are showcasing their ability to keep a lid on pricing despite the turbulent economic environment.

Target Corp., for example, in June said it was freezing prices at 2024 levels on 20 “must-have” items—including crayons, colored pencils, notebooks, folders, and other school supplies, noting that all 20 items can be purchased for less than $20 in total. It also is bringing back a popular $5 backpack from a year ago and is promoting 1,000 items at less than $5 each.

Similarly, a few weeks after Target announced its BTS promotion, Dollar General unveiled a promotion in which it said all of its “core back-to-school items” are being offered at 2024 prices. It is also listing 70-plus items at $1 or less and “fashionable and function backpacks” for $5 or less.

‘Retailers should ensure their [BTS] deals are discoverable for AI and consider incorporating AI-driven product discovery into their platforms’

As consumers increasingly learn to use artificial intelligence tools in their everyday lives, they are finding ways to incorporate it into their shopping experience, including for this back-to-school season.

About a fifth of back-to-school shoppers plan to use AI tools to help them find online deals, according to PwC’s 2025 Back-to-School survey.

PwC’s report cited research from Adobe showing that 55% of U.S. consumers use generative AI to conduct research, 47% use it to receive product recommendations, and 43% use it to seek deals.

“Retailers should ensure their deals are discoverable for AI …and consider incorporating AI-driven product discovery into their platforms,” the PwC report concluded.

Walmart is among the retailers that have touted their AI-driven features this back-to-school season. The company last year said it has been testing an AI-based personal shopping assistant that helps customers search for product solutions for specific use cases. The company said its AI technology would help shoppers find what they needed faster as well as discover new products.

The Deloitte research found that 33% of parents plan to use generative AI for back-to-school shopping, but only 22% trust it. It is also much more popular among Gen Z (67%) than millennials (34%). The most common uses are comparing prices/finding deals (66%), reading summaries of product reviews (44%), generating shopping lists (42%), discovering products (36%), getting personalized suggestions (32%), and budgeting (31%).

Resale platforms gain as destination for savings

This year, 21% of Deloitte survey respondents said they would do some of their back-to-school shopping at resale or thrift stores, up slightly from 20% a year ago. Survey respondents reported less interest in shopping at nearly every other retail channel this year compared with a year ago, including a big drop among department store shoppers (27% this year, versus 39% a year ago).

The interest in shopping for gently used apparel and school supplies reflects an overall trend toward reducing spending and curbing consumption. Online resale retailers such as ThredUp offer parents the opportunity to save on apparel—and a platform to sell the clothes their kids have outgrown.

The percent of people shopping at mass merchants, meanwhile, jumped to 83%, vs. 77% last year, while online retailers were cited as a destination by 68% of survey respondents, vs. 65% last year.

The rise in popularity of mass merchants and online retailers comes as overseas value retailers appear to be losing some steam, according to the Deloitte research. Although 19% of retailers said they planned to use overseas value retailers to research back-to-school products, only 9% said they planned to buy from them—down from 15% a year ago.

[Read more: Resale’s Next Big Wave: Execs From ThredUp to Trove on How Tech and Brand Adoption Are Driving Secondhand Retail Boom]

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