Small business takeaway:
- Coffee’s next growth wave shows how price pressure can redirect demand rather than reduce it: More consumers are trading café visits for at-home upgrades, with cold brew leading the growth shift, particularly among Gen Z consumers. It also underscores how social platforms like TikTok can compress the time between trend and mainstream adoption. And it highlights a widening gap in go-to-market models — everyday coffee purchases are dominated by convenience-driven operators, while specialty coffee brands and venues earn loyalty through distinctive flavors and community experiences.
America runs on coffee — to the tune of $301 million per day for coffee and related goods, or $100 billion annually, according to the National Coffee Association.
While consumers won’t forego their coffee, elevated costs are causing shifts in consumption habits.
Indeed, consumers’ living spaces have become a central hub of their java ritual, fueled by a mixed brew of factors. These range from the rise of remote and hybrid work schedules to the growing popularity of craft coffee beverages among (TikTok-inspired) Gen Z drinkers.
At the same time, indie coffee brands and shops, as well as global flavors and cold brew innovation, are driving the category, analysts told CO—.
At-home coffee movement takes flight
According to the US Coffee and RTD Coffee report from market researcher Mintel, more than one-third of consumers surveyed (35%) said they’re making coffee more at home in the face of price increases.
Devotion continues even amid steep price inclines. As of January 2026, U.S. coffee prices rose 18.3% versus a year ago and 47% over the past five years, according to the Consumer Price Index. Weather-related production shortfalls in Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam — key suppliers to the U.S. coffee market — are squeezing global supply and pushing prices higher.
“Consumers will turn to at-home coffee more, somewhat reminiscent of the pandemic-spurred at-home barista trend, but now with value a greater piece of the puzzle,” said Kelsey Girard, Mintel’s Senior Food and Drink Analyst, in the report. “Brands that can prove [adaptable to] at-home coffee rituals will benefit in the near term and beyond.”
TikTok influencers help spawn coffee’s fourth wave toward at-home craft beverages
The shift toward home consumption is part of what Mintel has dubbed coffee’s fourth wave. While the three previous shifts in consumer attitudes and market dynamics centered on coffee as an accessible commodity (late 19th century to early 20th century), the demand for specialty drinks like cappuccino (1980 to 1990s), and a focus on premium brewing and descriptive tasting notes (late 2000s), the latest wave will be characterized by the growth of at-home specialty coffee drinks.
Beyond pricing concerns, remote and hybrid work schedules and social media are driving the desire to craft at-home specialty coffee, opening opportunities for retail coffee brands and businesses making related accoutrements and equipment. This is especially true of Gen Z consumers, 49% of whom learn about coffee and coffee topics from TikTok, according to Mintel. The rise of CoffeeTok — influencers sharing coffee beverage recipes and techniques — has a growing number of consumers replicating the drinks they see.
Mintel expects cold brews to dominate at-home craft coffee, including cold coffee drink recipes, textured cold coffee drinks like sparkling coffee, new cold-brewing techniques, and ready-to-drink products. Among recent examples to hit the market: Explorer Cold Brew cans, Caffe Umbria Espresso Spritz, and La Colombe’s Draft Latte line in s’mores, strawberry mocha, and peppermint mocha varieties.
[Read more: How 3 Startups Are Bringing At-Home Alternatives to Pricey Activities and Services]
The shift toward home consumption is part of what Mintel has dubbed coffee’s fourth wave. This is especially true of Gen Z consumers, 49% of whom learn about coffee and coffee topics from TikTok, according to Mintel.
Specialty coffee consumption surges — especially among young consumers
The focus on at-home specialty coffee is not surprising considering the jump in the segment’s consumption. Specialty coffee — espresso-based beverages like lattes and cappuccinos, non-espresso-based cold brews, and premium coffee beans or grounds — is at a 14-year-high consumption rate, said National Coffee Association’s (NCA) President and CEO William Murray.
Some 48% of American adults report consuming these types of beverages in the past day. And the number is highest among younger adults, ages 25 to 39, 57% of whom report past-day consumption. Traditional coffee also remains a staple, with 41% of Americans as past-day consumers.
Specialty consumption trends that the NCA tracks are in line with Mintel’s fourth-wave predictions. Cold brews are booming: “Twenty-one percent of American adults had cold brew in the last week, a 162% surge since 2016 — the year we began measuring this type of coffee,” said Murray.
Younger consumers are also driving the trend toward cold coffee. “Hot coffee consumption is decreasing in volume at food service while cold is up,” David Henkes, Senior Principal and Head of Strategic Partnerships at Technomic, a food service research firm, told CO—. “Hot coffee tends to be a beverage for older consumers, while younger consumers prefer cold brew, frozen, refreshers, tea-based drinks—all of that is growing.”
Quick-service coffee chains still dominate in volume
Although at-home innovation is poised to grow, away-from-home coffee is hardly fading away from daily routines. “While, broadly speaking, traffic trends show deflated growth in restaurants, affordable indulgences are doing [just fine] and coffee shops are outperforming businesses,” said Henkes.
Day-to-day sales volume is still in quick service, points out Nick Brown, Editor of Daily Coffee News. The high-volume drive-through places that offer more-affordable, more-sugar-sweetened coffee beverages continue to thrive, he told CO—.
“The fun in coffee is talking about exciting trends in menus and flavors and innovative cafe spaces, but it’s important for people in the coffee business to realize that everything is volume, scale, and speed. That is where the money flows in and out,” he continued.
“The quick-service channel is where the money is. People are having their fix every day in traditional coffee but also frozen blends and iced sweet coffee.”
[Read more: Global Flavor Trends Drive New Sweet and Salty Snack Innovations]
Shifting specialty cafe scene and indie brands look to expand offerings and events
With at-home craft coffee on the rise and quick service continuing its hold on daily convenience, specialty coffeehouses are differentiating themselves with expanding menus and community-oriented programming.
Innovation in drink creation is key to standing out as consumers look at cafes as more of a luxury, said Brown. “There used to be nearly identical signature drinks everywhere but now, in contrast to high-volume chains, independents are focusing on offering what no one else does,” he added.
More shops are developing and producing their own syrups for flavoring and sweetening, which allows for experimentation with flavor. Syrup companies, too, are elevating choices with examples like Surrup’s French lavender, Portland Syrups’ cardamom, and Purple Potions’ Filipino-inspired line of pandan, ube, and banana cue flavors, targeting at-home craft coffee consumption.
Global flavors and experiences are also influencing offerings. For example, coffee purveyors might focus on a specific region or their country of origin and offer traditional experiences. One example is Artara Coffee on New York City’s Upper East Side. The shop specializes in Cambodian coffee and uses design elements inspired by Cambodian, or Khmer, heritage.
Independent shops are also getting creative about their overall menu offerings. “There’s a movement toward non-coffee drinks from coffee purveyors,” said Brown, who pointed out cafe product lineups more often include caffeinated sodas or mocktails and teas.
Matcha-branded cafes like New York City’s Matchaful and 12 Matcha, and Los Angeles’ Cafe Matcha are increasingly on the rise. And functional coffees — whether made with mushroom or protein additives — are also going strong, Brown added, especially among younger consumers in their 20s and 30s.
The trend toward cold brews means that coffee is now a competitive category to all cold beverages, whether that’s tea, lemonade, dirty sodas, or refreshers, noted Technomic’s Henkes. “The decision set for cold beverages for consumers is more diverse and has more variety. [That is translating] to more flavor and additives with coffee as the base for the drink,” he continued. “Coffee shops are not just coffee. They are beverage shops.”
Selling coffee alone is getting harder to do with rising prices, said Brown. Purveyors are offering broader selections, including food and programming like open mic nights, exhibits, speed dating, games like mahjong that are enjoying a resurgence, and live music. “We’re seeing more events where consumers come to an alcohol-free space for coffee, and there is music and dancing,” said Brown.
“[Chains like] Starbucks and independent retailers both are coming around to the idea that they want people to go to cafes to spend time. The recent trend has been speed, but now they’re willing to let people linger,” Brown explained. “The idea is that if you want customers to be loyal, then you should accommodate their needs. Independent stores are nimbler to do that.”
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