What does 2027 have in store for American small businesses? Despite steady consumer spending and business growth, ongoing concerns about inflation, tariffs, and regulatory changes are making it difficult for business owners to plan ahead.
At the 2026 CO—100 Small Business Forum, Jeanette Mulvey, Vice President and Editor-in-Chief of CO—, sat down with Neil Bradley, Executive Vice President, Chief Policy Officer, and Head of Strategic Advocacy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, for a Small Business Update. Read on for Bradley's perspective on key issues to help your small business prepare for the year ahead.
Small businesses remain resilient despite economic uncertainty
Bradley described the overall economic outlook as positive, with a solid 2% growth margin expected by year-end
"It's better than OK, but it's not great," Bradley explained. “It’s not where we want to be. We want to be the economy with 3%-plus growth because that’s what really raises incomes for people.”
As rising energy prices work their way through the economy, inflation remains a major concern for people across the United States. Small businesses, specifically, generally report solid performance in the moment but are increasingly concerned about higher operating costs and whether customers can maintain their current spending levels, according to the Q3 2026 Small Business Index.
“Sometimes if we are worried that prices are going to keep going up, or if we are concerned that the bottom is going to fall out of the economy, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Bradley noted.
However, despite those feelings, consumer spending has remained surprisingly resilient. Although inflation has reduced discretionary income, Bradley said consumers have continued making purchases, sometimes drawing on savings or credit.
Although inflation has reduced discretionary income, Bradley said consumers have continued making purchases, sometimes drawing on savings or credit.
Businesses may be entitled to tariff refunds, but the process varies
Bradley and Mulvey also discussed the evolving tariff landscape, including a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and entitled some small businesses who paid them to a refund.
Bradley outlined three categories of refunds that are being issued:
- Importers with unfinalized tariff payments. Businesses that served as the importer of record may qualify for a relatively streamlined refund process through U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
- Importers with finalized payments. Businesses whose earlier tariff payments have already been finalized may face delays or additional legal hurdles.
- Businesses that used customs brokers. Refunds must first pass through the broker that paid the tariff, which could extend the timeline.
“We just filed an amicus brief arguing that you shouldn’t make small businesses [go to court],” Bradley stated. “The tariff refund should be automatic. The tariffs were illegal. They deserve the money back.”
If your small business is affected, contact the U.S. Chamber for guidance on navigating the process and identifying the resources you need to get your money back.
[Read more: How to Apply for Small Business Tariff Refunds]
Immigration reform and AI regulation are key priorities heading into 2027
Looking ahead to the midterm elections, Bradley anticipated a possible shift in congressional control.
“I suspect we are on the cusp of some type of change,” Bradley noted. “What does that mean for small businesses? It’s easy to say, ‘Well, it’s going to be divided government.’ There could be a lot of gridlock.”
Even with a divided government, lawmakers should be able to address pressing business concerns such as legal immigration reform.
"We are in desperate need of legal immigration reform," Bradley said. “We just don’t have enough employees. We have more jobs open in the United States today than we have people looking for work.”
Bradley expressed cautious optimism about emerging bipartisan proposals addressing workforce needs in agriculture, hospitality, technology, and other sectors. The U.S. Chamber is working with a coalition of more than 600 organizations to advance immigration reform in 2027.
[Read more: Navigating the H-1B Visa: A Guide for Employers]
Artificial intelligence (AI) is also on the docket for 2027, with more and more proposed state-level regulations that could ultimately overly restrict and limit small businesses’ ability to innovate.
"There are a lot of proposals out there to restrict how businesses use AI," he said. "I think that is really problematic. There is no way government is going to know how to restrict your ability in the right way to utilize AI.”
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