Senior Vice President for International Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
July 09, 2018
After months of mounting tensions, the trade war has suddenly gotten very real.
Last week, a wave of steep retaliatory tariffs was unleashed against $75 billion of U.S. exports. These tariffs are being levied by other countries on U.S. merchandise exports in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum and, in the case of China, tariffs the United States levied on $34 billion of imports from China on July 6.
U.S. agricultural products and many manufactured goods exports are the top targets for retaliation.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce argued strenuously against the initial U.S. tariffs. Imposing these tariffs on our best customers threatens the U.S. economy, risks alienating many of our closest allies, and does not effectively address legitimate trade concerns such as those the business community has with regard to China’s industrial policies.
And tariffs are, of course, a tax – one paid not by foreigners but by Americans.
The U.S. Chamber is working overtime to build awareness of the costs of these actions. Last week, we launched a new website – www.thewrongapproach.com – presenting state-specific data on the impact of these tariffs on American workers, farmers, and consumers.
The site compares the retaliatory tariff lists of Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China with Commerce Department data on state exports, and the results drive home the fact that the costs of a global trade war will be local.
And now, the damage reports are coming in.
As expected, U.S. agriculture is taking the first hits in the emerging trade war. Soybeans, which recently surpassed corn to become the largest U.S. crop in terms of acres planted, have already been hit hard. As Farm Journal’s AgWeb reported on July 6:
Even before the tariffs hit, the damage was evident in declining prices, according to South Dakota Senator John Thune (R), a member of the Senate’s Republican leadership.
“In fact, since March soybean prices have dropped about a dollar a bushel, which in South Dakota means about $225 million for our farmers,” Thune said.
Dairy farmers are also hurting, particularly given retaliation by Mexico, the largest export market for U.S. dairy products. As the Wall Street Journalreports:
Manufacturers are getting hit as well. Bloomberg reports that “Global Trade-War Threat Is Bringing Anxiety to Factory Floor”:
Steel and aluminum prices have spiked this year due to the U.S. tariffs, with U.S. benchmarks (e.g., hot rolled band steel, below) for steel up more than 50% and now at least 50% higher than prices prevailing in Europe. These soaring prices have hammered American steel-consuming industries: Manufacturers of nails, lockers, kegs, and boats have all been hit hard.
Tariffs have also hit the construction sector. According to the USG+U.S. Chamber of Commerce Commercial Construction Index, contractors in the second quarter of 2018 worried about “the impact of material price fluctuations on their businesses. Steel tops the list of materials concerns, with 86% of respondents expecting to see at least moderate to severe impacts on their business in the next three years from recently imposed tariffs.”
The forecast for small manufacturers is especially tough. Smaller firms in sectors such as auto parts manufacturing indicate they can only bear these high input costs for another 60 days before layoffs will become a necessity.
These are the fruits of a trade war: Lower prices and lost markets for U.S. exporters, and higher input prices for American manufacturers. For consumers, it all spells higher prices.
It’s time for the administration to carve a new path for its trade policy – one that emphasizes growth and abandons the blunt instrument of tariffs.