Small Business Outlook: Concerns Rising Heading into Holidays

A battle of resiliency versus uncertainty is being waged on Main Streets throughout the country with Small Business Saturday providing a hopeful boost. 

For small business importers, tariffs are having a real impact as uncertainty and rising costs are hitting home. To help thousands of small businesses navigate the challenges, the U.S. Chamber has been answering questions, holding briefings, sharing resources, and lobbying on their behalf.

Coming Soon - Q4 Small Business Index: The Q4 2025 MetLife and U.S. Chamber Small Business Index will be out on December 10 with new data on workforce trends, holiday plans, and more.

New Small Business Data

WSJ/Vistage Small Business November Small Business CEO Survey (November 25, 2025)

Summary: Small business resilience explains how small businesses are bullish on revenue and profits while increasingly negative on the economy.

• 18% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (4 points lower than October) and 51% say the economy has gotten worse (8 points worse than October).
• 30% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (no change from October) and 37% believe the economy will worsen (2 points worse than October).
• 55% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (7 points higher than October) and 5% plan on decreasing employees (5 points lower than October).
• 33% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (1 point higher than October).
• 67% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (9 points higher than October) and 11% believe revenues will decrease (4 points better than October).
• 57% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (13 points higher than October) and 15% believe that profitability will decrease (8 points better than October).
• 69% of small businesses are experiencing increased costs from vendors and 50% of small businesses are raising their prices to offset inflationary pressure.

NFIB Quarterly Sector-Specific Economic Trends Report (November 25, 2025)

Summary: Small business confidence has softened across all sectors except construction where workforce needs are heightened.   

• 63% of small business owners feel positive about the health of their business and the construction sector’s confidence is 7.3 points above results reported for all firms.
• 18% of small businesses in the construction sector expect higher sales volumes in the next 6-months (21 points higher than last quarter).  The construction sector has the highest level of unfilled job openings (50%) and is bullish about hiring in the next 3-months (35%, which is 15 points higher than last quarter).
• 5% of small retailers expect higher sales volumes in the next 6-months (2 points higher). 30% of retailers have unfilled job openings and 5% expect to hire in the next 3-months (4 points lower than last quarter and lowest hiring expectations of all sectors).
• -3% of small businesses in the services sector expect higher sales (13 points lower than last quarter). 34% of services sector small businesses have unfilled job openings and 14% expect to hire in the next 3-months (no change from last quarter).
• 5% of small business manufacturers expect higher sales volumes in the next 6-months (15 points lower than last quarter).  33% of small manufacturers have unfilled job openings and 24% plan on hiring in the next 3-months (2 points less than last month).

Forbes Research Small Business Survey (November 24, 2025)

Summary: Small businesses are leaning into their unique value to attract customers. 

• 81% of small business owners believe customers want to patronize businesses that serve their communities with purposeful intent (10 points higher than last year).
• 81% of small business owners believe personalized experiences are critical for a small business competitive advantage (16 points higher than last year).

Paychex 2025 Small Business Holiday Outlook Survey (November 18, 2025)

Summary: Survey of small businesses with more than 4-employees shows high optimism for holiday sales and confidence for a strong 2026. 

• 87% of small business owners expect this holiday season to outperform last year and over 47% believe that their growth will continue into 2026.
• 79% of small businesses are offering higher wages or incentives for seasonal workers, with 88% of restaurants raising offerings for their holiday workers.
• 56% of small businesses report that is is “easy” to find qualified seasonal staff and 17% are challenged by turnover and no-shows.
• 36% of small businesses are relying more on automation and artificial intelligence (AI) to handle the increased demand over the holidays and nearly 95% are ready for that increase.
• 37% of single-location businesses are looking to hire in 2026 and nearly 60% of multi-location businesses are looking to increase staff in 2026.

Small Business Fast Facts

Small Business Data Center

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Bank of America 2025 Small Business Owner Report (November 18, 2025)

Summary: A super majority of small business owners report level or increased revenue over the past 5-years and over half are bullish on their local economies. 

• 55% of small business owners report increased revenues over the past 5-years and 24% report level revenue over the past 5-years.
• 74% of small business owners expect increased revenue in 2026 and 60% plan to expand their businesses.
• 53% of small business owners expect their local economies to improve next year.  48% believe the national economy will improve and 45% believe the global economy will improve.
• 70% of small business owners rank inflation as the top concern in the coming year (no change from 2024).  64% list tariff policy as a top concern (not asked in 2024) and 64% list  U.S. political environment as a top concern (3 points lower than 2024). 
• 61% of small business owners are impacted by labor shortages.  50% are working longer hours due to staff shortages and 40% are raising wages to attract better applicants.
• 52% of small business owners plan on keeping the same number of employees next year and 43% plan on adding employees.
• 88% of small business owners are impacted by inflation.  Of that percentage, 64% are raising their own prices and 39% are reevaluating cash flow and spending.
• 77% of small business owners have integrated artificial intelligence (AI) into their operations over the past 5-years.

Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index (November 6, 2025)

Summary: Revenue for the nation’s smallest businesses has generally been trending downward since April of this year.

• Average revenue growth for small businesses with 1-9 employees rose 0.51% in September and small businesses in New England experienced the highest month-to-month increase (2.63%).
• Average monthly revenue for small businesses with 1-9 employees in September was $47,250, a $370 decrease from August.
• Small businesses in the Southwest had the highest average revenue in September ($49,530) and small businesses in New England benefitted from returning college students to achieve the largest month-to-month revenue increase of the 8 regions in September ($170).

Honoring America's Top Small Businesses

Celebrating America's Top 100 Small Businesses

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Fiserv October Small Business Index (November 3, 2025)

Summary: Consumer spending is starting to slow, making Main Street shop owners nervous leading up to the holidays. 

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in October held steady (+0.1% change) and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 1.5% compared to October 2024.

Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices Survey (October 27, 2025)

Summary: Inflation continues to hold back small employers, and continued optimism reflects the resiliency of Main Street business owners.

• 78% of small business owners are optimistic about the current trajectory of their business and 74% plan on growing their business this year.
• 41% of small business owners plan on adding jobs this year, 39% plan on maintaining current staffing levels, and 12% plan on cutting jobs.
• 54% of small business owners want government to focus on inflation, 40% want more policy certainty, 40% want help offering benefits, and 35% want government to focus on access to capital.
• Finding and keeping good employees, inflation, and tariffs all ranked highest (17%) as the top challenge facing small employers, followed by affordability of benefits (15%), customer demand (10%), and red tape (4%). 
• 72% of small business owners believe inflation has increased in the past 3-months and 65% believe that owning and operating a business is beyond the reach of average Americans.
• 72% of small business owners are using Artificial Intelligence (AI), with an additional 7% planning on adopting AI within the next year. 
• 94% of AI users say that the technology has a positive impact on their small business.

2025 OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Q3 Cash Flow Trend Report (October 22, 2025)

Summary: Confidence on Main Street remains elevated along with inflation anxiety.

• 93% of small businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth over the next year (1 point higher than last quarter) and 31% anticipate significant growth (5 points higher than last quarter).
• Inflation is still the highest concern for small business owners across all 7 industry categories. 
• 65% of small business owners are unsure how tariffs are impacting their business finances (8 points higher than last quarter).  
• 52% of small business owners have incorporated Artificial Intelligence (AI) into their operations.

MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q3 (September 24, 2025)

Summary: Small business owners’ confidence hits all-time high, driven primarily by rising sales expectations and comfort with cash flow.

• 72% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (4 points higher than last quarter) and 76% are comfortable with their current cash flow (3 points higher than last quarter).
• 46% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (5 points higher than last quarter) and 24% are negative.
• 40% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (6 points higher than last quarter) and 42% are negative (3 points better than last quarter). 
• 46% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (2 points lower than last quarter and the 15^thconsecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 70% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (5 points higher than last quarter).
• 28% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (no change from last quarter) and 44% expect to increase staff in the next year (2 points higher than last quarter).
• Rising costs of goods and services and rising costs of materials are the top two barriers for growth according to a combined 64% of small business owners.

Looking for More Small Business Insights?

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About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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