Small Business Outlook: Cautious Optimism Continues

Small business confidence remains elevated and AI adoption continues to pick up pace as small employers look for ways to gain productivity without massive capital expenditures and hiring.

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New Small Business Data

SBE Council Small Business Technology Use Survey (March 11, 2026)

Summary: Small businesses continue their rapid adoption of AI and investment in technology to compete more effectively in 2026.

• 90% of small business owners are confident in their ability to adopt AI and digital tools.
• 51% of small business owners are “gung ho” about AI, 26% are cautiously optimistic, and 9% express negative feelings towards AI.
• 53% of small business owners believe AI will have a major impact on their industry and the median annual expenditure on AI is $2,200.
• 2/3 of small business owners report revenue gains attributed to AI.
• Small business owners report AI saved an average of 5 hours per week through the use of AI.
• 52% of small business owners see AI as complimentary to workers and 8% believe AI is a substitute for workers.

UBS Global Entrepreneur Report (March 11, 2026)

Summary: Survey of 215 UBS startup clients, whose businesses are among the largest startups in the world.

• 68% of top startup owners are optimistic about their business over the next 12-months.
• 34% of top entrepreneurs cite “economic conditions” as their reason for confidence, tied with “advances in technology and innovation.”
• 94% of the top American startups expect to add staff throughout 2026 and 84% of top European startups expect to add staff.
• 42% of the top global startup owners cite political uncertainty in 2026 as their top concern followed by concerns with potential shifts in trade policy (36%).
• 61% of the top global startups view AI as the new frontier for competitive advantage and 77% expect efficiency gains and automation through AI to have the most powerful impact over the next 5-years.
• 41% of the top global entrepreneurs admit a lack of understanding of how to apply AI to their business.
• 46% of the top global entrepreneurs are frustrated by a shortage of employees with AI skills and training.

NFIB February Small Business Optimism Index (March 10, 2026)

Summary: Actual sales continue to tick up while sales expectations and capital expenditures tick downward.

• 18% of small business owners expect the economy to improve in the next 3-months (3 points lower than January).
• 15% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (no change since January).
• 1% of small businesses reported higher sales in the past 3-months (7 points better than January) and 8% of small business owners expect higher sales in the next 3-months (8 points lower than January).
• 24% of small businesses raised their prices in January (2 points lower than January) and 28% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (4 points lower than January).
• 54% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (6 points lower than January) and 18% are planning capital purchases in the next 6-months (no change from January).
• -5% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (2 points worse than January).
• Small businesses paid an average rate for short maturity loans of 8.2% (0.9 points lower than January) and 25% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis (no change from December and January).

GoDaddy Small Business Research Lab Report (March 3, 2026)

Summary: Sustained growth in new business formation moves in tandem with sustained GDP growth.

• 1% increase in establishment births is associated with 0.18% higher GDP growth, 0.16% higher payroll job growth, and a 0.15% decline in unemployment.
• One new technology-based small business in a zip code is associated with 2.9 more local payroll jobs and has a multiplier effect of 0.3 new establishments.

Small Business Fast Facts

Small Business Data Center

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Paychex February Small Business Employment Watch (March 3, 2026)

Summary: Midwest continues to rank highest for small business job and wage growth.

• Paychex’s Small Business Jobs Index declined 0.53% since January and has declined 1.27% compared to February last year.
• The Midwest is the top region for small business employment growth since May 2024.
• Paychex’s Small Business Wage Data rose 0.04% since January and rose 2.78% compared to February last year.
• The Midwest ranks strongest for hourly earnings growth (3.08%) since August 2025.

Fiserv February Small Business Index (March 3, 2026)

Summary: Consumer spending remains steady.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses increased slightly in February (+0.2% change) and year-over-year sales at small businesses continued to go up (+1.2% change) compared to February 2025.

2026 Report on Employer Firms from the Federal Reserve 2025 Small Business Credit Survey (March 3, 2026)

Summary: Revenue and employment growth on Main Street generally remained steady from 2024-2025 and expectations for future growth declined.

• 57% of small business owners viewed reaching customers and growing sales as their top challenge in 2025 followed by 46% who reported challenges with finding, hiring, and retaining workers.
• 48% of small firms reported sourcing from companies outside the U.S. and 84% of those firms reported input price increases throughout 2025.
• 31% of small business owners reported they were debt free and 59% of small businesses with debt secured it with a personal guarantee.
• 42% of small businesses received the amount of financing they wanted in 2025 and small business applicants at small banks were most likely to be fully approved for the requested financing (57%) compared to other lender types.

WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (February 18, 2026)

Summary: Main Street confidence continues to rise and small employers remain cautious about expanding their workforce.

• 27% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (3 points higher than January) and 30% say the economy has gotten worse (4 points better than January).
• 36% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (2 points higher than January) and 21% believe the economy will worsen (2 points better than January).
• 55% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (5 points higher than January) and 9% plan on decreasing employees (2 points higher than January).
• 34% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (2 points higher than January) and 50% expect fixed expenditures to remain the same.
• 71% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (4 points higher than January) and 8% believe revenues will decrease (2 points better than January).
• 60% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (4 points higher than January) and 8% believe that profitability will decrease (5 points better than January).
• 49% of small business owners anticipate tax savings from the new tax law and 33% do not.

Honoring America's Top Small Businesses

Celebrating America's Top 100 Small Businesses

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MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q4 (December 10, 2025)

Summary: Index shows a dip in confidence, revenue expectations, cash flow, and plans for investment. Inflation remains the top concern albeit trending downward. Note: Survey was in the field during the government shutdown.

• 70% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (2 points lower than last quarter) and 74% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points lower than last quarter).
• 43% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (3 points lower) and 28% are negative (4 points worse than last quarter).
• 38% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (2 points lower than last quarter) and 44% are negative (2 points worse than last quarter).
• 45% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (1point lower than last quarter and the 16^thconsecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 65% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 23% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (5 points less than last quarter) and 68% reported keeping the same number of staff (4 points higher than last quarter).
• 42% of small business owners expect to increase staff in the next year (2 points lower than last quarter) and 49% expect to maintain current staffing levels (3 points higher than last quarter).
• 17% of small business owners cited employee retention as their top concern (highest level in 8 ½ years).

Explore More Small Business Insights

The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

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About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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