Small Business Outlook: Concerns Rising Heading into Holidays

November’s numbers are look better and spending remains steady.  Anxiety over high prices is stunting growth.  

For small business importers, tariffs are having a real impact as uncertainty and rising costs are hitting home. To help thousands of small businesses navigate the challenges, the U.S. Chamber has been answering questions, holding briefings, sharing resources, and lobbying on their behalf.

Just Released - Q4 Small Business Index: The Q4 2025 MetLife and U.S. Chamber Small Business Index is out with new data on workforce trends, holiday plans, and more.

New Small Business Data

CNBC’s All-America Economic Survey (December 15, 2025)

Summary: CNBC’s quarterly poll on sentiment conducted since 2006 - Small business owners and consumers are concerned with high prices, but spending remains steady.

• 42% of Americans will spend the same on holiday gifts as they did last year, diverting from a trend of spending less every year.
• 41% of Americans will spend less on holiday gifts this year and 46% of those customers blame high prices.
• 16% of Americans will spend more on holiday gifts this year and 36% of those customers cite high prices as the reason for more spending.
• The average spending on gifts is expected to be $1,026 this year, a 3.9% increase from 2024.
• 87% of shoppers did not use AI to help with holiday gift purchases.  Of the 13% of shoppers who did use AI, 57% used the technology to find the best price for a gift.
• 66% of Americans plan on watching a movie at home with family or friends during the holidays and “Home Alone” tops the list of favorite holiday movies.  “How the Grinch Stole Christmas” and “Die Hard” were close runners-up.

MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q4 (December 10, 2025)

Summary: Index shows a dip in confidence, revenue expectations, cash flow, and plans for investment. Inflation remains the top concern albeit trending downward. Note: Survey was in the field during the government shutdown.

• 70% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (2 points lower than last quarter) and 74% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points lower than last quarter).
• 43% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (3 points lower) and 28% are negative (4 points worse than last quarter).
• 38% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (2 points lower than last quarter) and 44% are negative (2 points worse than last quarter). 
• 45% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (1point lower than last quarter and the 16^thconsecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 65% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 23% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (5 points less than last quarter) and 68% reported keeping the same number of staff (4 points higher than last quarter).
• 42% of small business owners expect to increase staff in the next year (2 points lower than last quarter) and 49% expect to maintain current staffing levels (3 points higher than last quarter).
• 17% of small business owners cited employee retention as their top concern (highest level in 8 ½ years). 

NFIB November Small Business Optimism Index (December  11, 2025)

Summary: More small businesses are raising prices to cover increased costs, marking the largest change in NFIB’s monthly economic trends survey.

• 15% of small business owners expect the economy to improve in the next 3-months (5 points lower than October).
• 13% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (no change from October).
• -9% of small businesses reported higher sales in the past 3-months (4 points better than October) and 15% of small business owners expect higher sales in the next 3-months (9 points higher than October).
• 21% of small businesses reported labor quality as their top concern (6 points lower than October) and 8% reported labor costs as their top concern (no change from October).
• 15% of small businesses listed inflation as their top concern (3 points higher than October). 
• 33% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill (1 point higher than October) and 89% of those trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants (1 point higher than October).
• 56% of small businesses hired or tried to hire in October (no change from October) and 19% of small businesses plan on hiring in the next 3-months (4 points higher than October). 
• 26% of small business owners raised compensation in the past 3-months (no change from October) and 24% plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (5 points higher than October).
• 34% of small businesses raised their prices (13 points higher than October) and 30% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (no change from October).
• 52% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (3 points lower than October) and 26% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (3 points lower than October).
• -5% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (2 points worse than October).
• Small businesses paid an average rate for short maturity loans of 7.9% (0.8 points lower than October) and 23% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis  (no change from October).

Fiserv November Small Business Index (December 3, 2025)

Summary: Holiday spending kept sales numbers from cratering in November. 

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses dipped slightly in November (-0.6% change) and year-over-year sales at small businesses inched up (+0.8% change) compared to November 2024.

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WSJ/Vistage Small Business November Small Business CEO Survey (November 25, 2025)

Summary: Small business resilience explains how small businesses are bullish on revenue and profits while increasingly negative on the economy.

• 18% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (4 points lower than October) and 51% say the economy has gotten worse (8 points worse than October).
• 30% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (no change from October) and 37% believe the economy will worsen (2 points worse than October).
• 55% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (7 points higher than October) and 5% plan on decreasing employees (5 points lower than October).
• 33% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (1 point higher than October).
• 67% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (9 points higher than October) and 11% believe revenues will decrease (4 points better than October).
• 57% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (13 points higher than October) and 15% believe that profitability will decrease (8 points better than October).
• 69% of small businesses are experiencing increased costs from vendors and 50% of small businesses are raising their prices to offset inflationary pressure.

Forbes Research Small Business Survey (November 24, 2025)

Summary: Small businesses are leaning into their unique value to attract customers. 

• 81% of small business owners believe customers want to patronize businesses that serve their communities with purposeful intent (10 points higher than last year).
• 81% of small business owners believe personalized experiences are critical for a small business competitive advantage (16 points higher than last year).

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Paychex 2025 Small Business Holiday Outlook Survey (November 18, 2025)

Summary: Survey of small businesses with more than 4-employees shows high optimism for holiday sales and confidence for a strong 2026. 

• 87% of small business owners expect this holiday season to outperform last year and over 47% believe that their growth will continue into 2026.
• 79% of small businesses are offering higher wages or incentives for seasonal workers, with 88% of restaurants raising offerings for their holiday workers.
• 56% of small businesses report that is is “easy” to find qualified seasonal staff and 17% are challenged by turnover and no-shows.
• 36% of small businesses are relying more on automation and artificial intelligence (AI) to handle the increased demand over the holidays and nearly 95% are ready for that increase.
• 37% of single-location businesses are looking to hire in 2026 and nearly 60% of multi-location businesses are looking to increase staff in 2026.

Bank of America 2025 Small Business Owner Report (November 18, 2025)

Summary: A super majority of small business owners report level or increased revenue over the past 5-years and over half are bullish on their local economies. 

• 55% of small business owners report increased revenues over the past 5-years and 24% report level revenue over the past 5-years.
• 74% of small business owners expect increased revenue in 2026 and 60% plan to expand their businesses.
• 53% of small business owners expect their local economies to improve next year.  48% believe the national economy will improve and 45% believe the global economy will improve.
• 70% of small business owners rank inflation as the top concern in the coming year (no change from 2024).  64% list tariff policy as a top concern (not asked in 2024) and 64% list  U.S. political environment as a top concern (3 points lower than 2024). 
• 61% of small business owners are impacted by labor shortages.  50% are working longer hours due to staff shortages and 40% are raising wages to attract better applicants.
• 52% of small business owners plan on keeping the same number of employees next year and 43% plan on adding employees.
• 88% of small business owners are impacted by inflation.  Of that percentage, 64% are raising their own prices and 39% are reevaluating cash flow and spending.
• 77% of small business owners have integrated artificial intelligence (AI) into their operations over the past 5-years.

Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index (November 6, 2025)

Summary: Revenue for the nation’s smallest businesses has generally been trending downward since April of this year.

• Average revenue growth for small businesses with 1-9 employees rose 0.51% in September and small businesses in New England experienced the highest month-to-month increase (2.63%).
• Average monthly revenue for small businesses with 1-9 employees in September was $47,250, a $370 decrease from August.
• Small businesses in the Southwest had the highest average revenue in September ($49,530) and small businesses in New England benefitted from returning college students to achieve the largest month-to-month revenue increase of the 8 regions in September ($170).

Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices Survey (October 27, 2025)

Summary: Inflation continues to hold back small employers, and continued optimism reflects the resiliency of Main Street business owners.

• 78% of small business owners are optimistic about the current trajectory of their business and 74% plan on growing their business this year.
• 41% of small business owners plan on adding jobs this year, 39% plan on maintaining current staffing levels, and 12% plan on cutting jobs.
• 54% of small business owners want government to focus on inflation, 40% want more policy certainty, 40% want help offering benefits, and 35% want government to focus on access to capital.
• Finding and keeping good employees, inflation, and tariffs all ranked highest (17%) as the top challenge facing small employers, followed by affordability of benefits (15%), customer demand (10%), and red tape (4%). 
• 72% of small business owners believe inflation has increased in the past 3-months and 65% believe that owning and operating a business is beyond the reach of average Americans.
• 72% of small business owners are using Artificial Intelligence (AI), with an additional 7% planning on adopting AI within the next year. 
• 94% of AI users say that the technology has a positive impact on their small business.

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About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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