Updated
July 31, 2026
Published
February 27, 2023
This Week's Highlights
- Main Street Headwinds: Inflation continues to be the biggest headwind for Main Street employers.
- 2026 Outlook: Small business owners expect continued profitability and optimism amongst small employers ticks up.
- Summary: Expectation of continued profitability lifts small business sentiment and high prices stifle big plans for re-investment and growth.
Tariff Refund FAQ Guide: Visit this guide for information to help small businesses identify whether they paid IEEPA‑based tariffs and prepare for the emerging refund process.
Navigating the New Tax Law: Don't miss our practical guide to maximizing savings for small businesses under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”
ICYMI: As the United States celebrates its 250th anniversary, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark unveiled a bold vision for how the business community can help shape the nation’s next chapter. Watch here.
Is your small business a member of the U.S. Chamber? As the nation's leading small business advocacy organization, we can help you with exclusive intelligence and access, a Policy Help Desk, regular updates on economic and business trends, and more.
New Small Business Data
Chase for Business July Small Business Pulse (July 31, 2026)
Insight Summary: Data from June show that small business owners expect higher profits amidst rising costs.
- Hiring at small businesses in June recovered from May’s dip and leveled the year-over-year average at about 24%.
- Profitability for small businesses remained in positive territory throughout June despite continued inflation anxiety, an example of how Main Street businesses remain resilient.
- 44% of small businesses anticipated raising prices in July (11 points higher than June) and 54% of small businesses anticipated higher input costs in July (6 points higher than June).
WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (June 24, 2026)
Insight Summary: Small business expectations for increased profitability provided a boost in confidence.
- 23% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (5 points higher than June 3) and 34% say the economy has gotten worse (14 points better than June).
- 28% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (1 points better than June) and 21% believe the economy will worsen (9 points better than June).
- 49% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (2 points higher than June) and 9% plan on decreasing employees (2 points better than June).
- 39% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (1 point higher than June).
- 62% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (no change from June) and 11% believe revenues will decrease (1 point better than June).
- 51% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (3 points better than June) and 19% believe that profitability will decrease (1 point worse than June).
Bank of America Institute Report, A New Generation of Business Formation (July 21, 2026)
Insight Summary: New business starts remain high and a higher percentage of entrepreneurs are founding businesses at an early age.
- Growth in new business applications in June rose 15% year-over-year on a three-month moving average.
- Business owners between the ages of 46-61 (Gen X) continue to start the most businesses at a rate of 4 to 1 compared to business owners between the ages of 14-29 (Gen Z). And, in June of 2020, the rate was 26 to 1.
- Lower income households account for 1 in every 4 business formations and in June of 2020, the rate was 1 in every 5.
- Higher income households account for 2 in every 5 business formations.
2026 OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Q2 Cash Flow Trend Report (July 23, 2026)
Insight Summary: Inflation re-takes the top spot of small business concerns, confidence on Main Street remains high, and AI adoption continues upward, especially for younger firms.
- 93% of small businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth over the next year (no change from last quarter) and 30.4% anticipate significant growth (1.6% lower than last quarter).
- 34% of small business owners cited inflation as their highest concern (5 points higher than last quarter) and 30% of small business owners cited cash flow as their highest concern (1 point lower than last quarter).
- 61% of small business owners actively use Artificial Intelligence (AI) (3 points higher than last quarter).
- 71% of small businesses established within the past 5-years have adopted AI compared to 45% of businesses that have operated for more than 20-years.
- 31.4% of small business owners listed “being my own boss” as the top reason for starting a business followed by the potential for more income (26%), to pursue their passion (24.2%) and for schedule flexibility (9.6%).
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q2 (July 15, 2026)
Insight Summary: Small business owners voice optimism for future revenues and hiring. High costs continue to be a wet blanket on reinvestment.
- 69% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (no change from the last 2 quarters) and 70% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points lower than last quarter).
- 33% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (3 points lower than last quarter) and 39% are negative (6 points worse than last quarter).
- 30% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (2 points higher than last quarter) and 52% are negative (2 points worse than last quarter).
- 57% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (4 points higher than last quarter and the 18th consecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
- 38% of small business owners expect to increase investment in their business in the upcoming year (1 point higher than last quarter).
- 66% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (5 points higher than last quarter).
- 19% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (3 points higher than last quarter) and 35% expect to increase staff over the next 12-months (5 points higher than last quarter).
- 20% of small business owners cited affordability of employee benefits or healthcare as their top concern (highest level in Index’s history (9 years).
Small Business Fast Facts
Honoring America's Top Small Businesses
Explore More Small Business Insights
The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.
Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.
Small Business Outlook Podcast
Listen to the Small Business Podc(AI)st for more insights from the U.S. Chamber's Tom Sullivan and NFIB's Holly Wade. Each week, they combine their own expertise with the latest AI tools for podcasting and music editing to deliver an AI-cast that keeps you entertained and up-to-speed on everything small business.
From Main Street
About the author
Thomas M. Sullivan
Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.
