Updated
November 08, 2025
Published
February 27, 2023
This Week's Highlights
- Uncertainty and underwhelming revenue growth are front and center on the minds of small business owners.
- Main Street employers remain confident in their cash flow, but are nervous about an economic slowdown caused by rising prices, tariffs, and the disruption from the longest government shutdown in history.
Relatively flat revenue growth is a concern for small business owners as they head into the holiday season.
As the government shutdown continues, the U.S. Chamber is highlighting the small business impact, ranging from the potential of delayed payments to lost sales and declining morale - and calling on Congress for an immediate end.
For small business importers, tariffs are having a real and devastating impact as uncertainty, rising costs, and cancellations are hitting home. To help thousands of small businesses navigate the challenges, the U.S. Chamber has been answering questions, holding briefings, sharing resources, and lobbying on their behalf.
Q3 Small Business Index: The Q3 2025 MetLife and U.S. Chamber Small Business Index is here. This quarter, the Index is 72.0, up from last quarter’s score of 65.2.
Championing Small Businesses
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New Small Business Data
Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index (November 6, 2025)
Summary: Revenue for the nation’s smallest businesses has generally been trending downward since April of this year.
- Average revenue growth for small businesses with 1-9 employees rose 0.51% in September and small businesses in New England experienced the highest month-to-month increase (2.63%).
- Average monthly revenue for small businesses with 1-9 employees in September was $47,250, a $370 decrease from August.
- Small businesses in the Southwest had the highest average revenue in September ($49,530) and small businesses in New England benefitted from returning college students to achieve the largest month-to-month revenue increase of the 8 regions in September ($170).
Fiserv October Small Business Index (November 3, 2025)
Summary: Consumer spending is starting to slow, making Main Street shop owners nervous leading up to the holidays.
- Month-over-month sales at small businesses in October held steady (+0.1% change) and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 1.5% compared to October 2024.
Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices Survey (October 27, 2025)
Summary: Inflation continues to hold back small employers, and continued optimism reflects the resiliency of Main Street business owners.
- 78% of small business owners are optimistic about the current trajectory of their business and 74% plan on growing their business this year.
- 41% of small business owners plan on adding jobs this year, 39% plan on maintaining current staffing levels, and 12% plan on cutting jobs.
- 54% of small business owners want government to focus on inflation, 40% want more policy certainty, 40% want help offering benefits, and 35% want government to focus on access to capital.
- Finding and keeping good employees, inflation, and tariffs all ranked highest (17%) as the top challenge facing small employers, followed by affordability of benefits (15%), customer demand (10%), and red tape (4%).
- 72% of small business owners believe inflation has increased in the past 3-months and 65% believe that owning and operating a business is beyond the reach of average Americans.
- 72% of small business owners are using Artificial Intelligence (AI), with an additional 7% planning on adopting AI within the next year.
- 94% of AI users say that the technology has a positive impact on their small business.
Small Business Fast Facts
WSJ / Vistage Small Business October Small Business CEO Survey (October 23, 2025)
Summary: Expected revenues and profits dropped in October, reversing September’s surge of Main Street employers’ optimism.
- 22% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (1 point higher than September) and 43% say the economy has gotten worse (no change).
- 30% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (1 point lower than September) and 35% believe the economy will worsen (3 points worse than September).
- 48% of small businesses plan on increasing employees this year (3 points lower than September) and 10% plan on decreasing employees (no change).
- 32% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (1 point lower than September).
- 58% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (2 points lower than September) and 15% believe revenues will decrease (4 points worse than September).
- 44% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (4 points worse than September) and 23% believe that profitability will decrease (4 points worse than September).
- 51% of small businesses reported that tariffs are decreasing their profitability (6 points higher than September) and 5% believe they are benefitting from tariffs (1 point higher).
- 85% of small business owners believe that the elimination of de minimis tariff exemption has no impact on their business.
2025 OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Q3 Cash Flow Trend Report (October 22, 2025)
Summary: Confidence on Main Street remains elevated along with inflation anxiety.
- 93% of small businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth over the next year (1 point higher than last quarter) and 31% anticipate significant growth (5 points higher than last quarter).
- Inflation is still the highest concern for small business owners across all 7 industry categories.
- 65% of small business owners are unsure how tariffs are impacting their business finances (8 points higher than last quarter).
- 52% of small business owners have incorporated Artificial Intelligence (AI) into their operations.
CNBC | SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index Q4 2025 (October 16, 2025)
Summary: Small business confidence slipped after Q3’s skyrocketing numbers and anxiety over rising prices continues.
- 38% of small business owners say that the economy is “excellent” or “good” (8 points lower than last quarter).
- 71% of small business owners expect the price of goods to rise (5 points higher than last quarter) and 28% believe inflation has peaked (4 points lower than last quarter).
- 49% of small business owners expect revenues to increase over the next 12-months (2 points lower than last quarter) and 26% expect to increase employment (2 points lower).
- 45% of small business owners are negatively impacted by tariffs (5 points higher than small business owners who expected trade policy to have a negative impact on their businesses when asked last quarter).
- 48% of small business owners support the Trump Administration’s tariff policies and 51% oppose them.
- 41% of small business owners believe government regulations will negatively impact their businesses in the next 12-months (6 points higher than last quarter).
- Inflation ranks as the highest risk for small business owners (24%) followed by consumer demand (17%).
Honoring America's Top Small Businesses
NFIB September Small Business Optimism Index (October 14, 2025)
Insight Summary: Sales expectations and economic outlook dip, pushing the index down. Main Street employers are still planning on adding employees and high level of uncertainty threatens growth.
- 23% of small business owners expect the economy to improve (11 points lower than August).
- 11% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (3 points lower than August).
- -7% of small businesses reported higher sales in the past 3-months (2 points better than August) and 8% of small business owners expect higher sales in the next 3-months (4 points lower than August).
- 18% of small businesses reported labor quality as their top concern in August (tied with taxes). 14% listed inflation as their top concern.
- 32% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill (no change from August) and 88% of those trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants (7 points higher than August).
- 58% of small businesses hired or tried to hire in September (5 points higher than August) and 16% of small businesses plan on hiring in the next 3-months (1 point higher than August).
- 31% of small business owners raised compensation in the past 3-months (2 points higher than August) and 19% plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (1 point lower than August).
- 24% of small businesses raised their prices (3 points higher than August) and 31% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (5 points higher than August). Note: despite the month-to-month decrease, price increases remain well above average of net 13%.
- 56% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (no change from August) and 21% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (no change from August).
- -7% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (3 points worse than August).
- Small businesses paid an average rate for short maturity loans of 8.8% (up 0.7 points from August) and 26% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis (3 points higher than August).
MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q3 (September 24, 2025)
Summary: Small business owners’ confidence hits all-time high, driven primarily by rising sales expectations and comfort with cash flow.
- 72% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (4 points higher than last quarter) and 76% are comfortable with their current cash flow (3 points higher than last quarter).
- 46% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (5 points higher than last quarter) and 24% are negative.
- 40% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (6 points higher than last quarter) and 42% are negative (3 points better than last quarter).
- 46% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (2 points lower than last quarter and the 15thconsecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
- 70% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (5 points higher than last quarter).
- 28% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (no change from last quarter) and 44% expect to increase staff in the next year (2 points higher than last quarter).
- Rising costs of goods and services and rising costs of materials are the top two barriers for growth according to a combined 64% of small business owners.
Looking for More Small Business Insights?
Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.
Small Business Forecast: The Podcast
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From Main Street
About the author
Thomas M. Sullivan
Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.
