Updated
April 04, 2026
Published
February 27, 2023
On this page
This Week's Highlights
- Uncertainty reigns supreme on Main Street, appearing in job reports (hiring slowdown) and small employer sentiment.
- Main Street employers scale back expectations amidst uncertainty and high prices.
Consumer spending remains steady while small business outlook dips. Main Street employers are scaling back hiring plans, but labor costs and the quality of job applicants remain top concerns.
Tariff Refund FAQ Guide: Visit this guide for information to help small businesses identify whether they paid IEEPA‑based tariffs and prepare for the emerging refund process.
Navigating the New Tax Law: Don't miss our practical guide to maximizing savings for small businesses under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”
ICYMI: As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark unveiled a bold vision for how the business community can help shape the nation’s next chapter. Watch here.
Championing Small Businesses
Is your small business a member of the U.S. Chamber? As the nation's leading small business advocacy organization, we can help you with exclusive intelligence and access, a Policy Help Desk, regular updates on economic and business trends, and more.
New Small Business Data
National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) March Jobs Report (April 2, 2026)
Summary: Even though small businesses are not ramping up hiring, they continue to struggle with labor costs and quality.
- 32% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in March (1 point lower than February), which remains above the historical average of 24%.
- 52% of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire in March (2 points lower than February) and 87% of those who hired or tried to hire reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill (1 point lower than February).
- 33% of small business owners raised compensation in March (1 point lower than February) and 18% plan on raising compensation in the next 3 months (4 points lower than February). Compensation levels remain above historical averages.
- 12% of small business owners plan on creating new jobs in the next 3 months (same as February), which is close to the historical average of 11%).
Fiserv March Small Business Index (April 2, 2026)
Summary: Consumer spending continues to slowly rise.
- Month-over-month sales at small businesses increased slightly in March (+0.7% change) and year-over-year sales at small businesses continued to go up (+1.3% change) compared to March 2025.
WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (March 25, 2026)
Summary: Plans to increase investment remain steady while uncertainty erased Main Street gains from January and February.
- 23% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (4 points lower than February) and 35% say the economy has gotten worse (5 points worse than February).
- 25% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (11 points lower than February) and 33% believe the economy will worsen (12 points worse than February).
- 52% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (3 points lower than February) and 9% plan on decreasing employees (no change from February).
- 36% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (2 points higher than February and 49% expect fixed expenditures to remain the same.
- 64% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (7 points lower than February) and 9% believe revenues will decrease (1 point worse than February).
- 52% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (8 points lower than February) and 17% believe that profitability will decrease (9 points worse than February).
- 50% of small business owners do not expect the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs to impact their business.
National Small Business Association (NSBA) 2026 Economic Outlook (March 20, 2026)
Summary: Small business owners are less pessimistic about the economy than a year ago and are split on whether the U.S. will experience an expansion or a recession in the next 12-months.
- 31% of small business owners believe the national economy is doing better than 6-months ago (10 points higher than a year ago) and 46% believe the national economy is worse (13 points better than a year ago).
- 66% of small business owners feel confident about the future of their business.
- 37% of small businesses increased revenue over the past 12-months and 56% expect increased revenues over the next 12-months.
- 39% of small businesses decreased revenue over the past 12-months and 20% expect decreased revenue over the next 12-months.
- 18% of small businesses increased staff over the past 12-months and 21% decreased.
- 46% of small businesses increased pay and benefits for their employees over the past 12-months and 5 % decreased compensation.
- 48% of small business owners cited economic uncertainty as their top concern and 49% of small business owners stated that access to capital is not a challenge impacting their business (highest of 9 possible answers when asked about access to capital).
- 46% of small businesses have been directly or indirectly negatively impacted by tariffs ad 34% have not been impacted.
- 32% of small business owners expect an economic expansion in the next 12-months, 32% expect a recession and 71% of small businesses are already growing or expect to grow within the next 12-months.
Small Business Fast Facts
Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices Survey (March 17, 2026)
Summary: Small businesses are still in the early stages of fully integrating AI and Main Street is bullish on productivity and revenue gains from the technology.
- 76% of small business owners said they are currently using AI and 14% are fully integrating AI into their core operations.
- 93% of small business owners who use AI report a positive impact on their business.
- 84% of small business owners who use AI cite “increased efficiency and productivity” as the main benefit from using AI.
- 87% of small business owners who use AI report that the technology is augmenting the work of employees and not replacing them.
- 67% of small business owners who use AI expect increased revenue from its use.
- 50% of small business owners who use AI cite concerns with data privacy and security as their top challenge with use of the technology, followed by lack of technical expertise (49%), and difficulty choosing the right AI tools (48%).
SBE Council Small Business Technology Use Survey (March 11, 2026)
Summary: Small businesses continue their rapid adoption of AI and investment in technology to compete more effectively in 2026.
- 90% of small business owners are confident in their ability to adopt AI and digital tools.
- 51% of small business owners are “gung ho” about AI, 26% are cautiously optimistic, and 9% express negative feelings towards AI.
- 53% of small business owners believe AI will have a major impact on their industry and the median annual expenditure on AI is $2,200.
- 2/3 of small business owners report revenue gains attributed to AI.
- Small business owners report AI saved an average of 5 hours per week through the use of AI.
- 52% of small business owners see AI as complimentary to workers and 8% believe AI is a substitute for workers.
GoDaddy Small Business Research Lab Report (March 3, 2026)
Summary: Sustained growth in new business formation moves in tandem with sustained GDP growth.
- 1% increase in establishment births is associated with 0.18% higher GDP growth, 0.16% higher payroll job growth, and a 0.15% decline in unemployment.
- One new technology-based small business in a zip code is associated with 2.9 more local payroll jobs and has a multiplier effect of 0.3 new establishments.
Honoring America's Top Small Businesses
Explore More Small Business Insights
The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.
Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.
Small Business Outlook Podcast
The Small Business Podc(AI)st
Listen to the Small Business Podc(AI)st for more insights from the U.S. Chamber's Tom Sullivan and NFIB's Holly Wade. Each week, they combine their own expertise with the latest AI tools for podcasting and music editing to deliver an AI-cast that keeps you entertained and up-to-speed on everything small business.
From Main Street
About the author
Thomas M. Sullivan
Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.
