Small Business Outlook: Cautious Optimism Continues

Confidence on Main Street improves and tax season gives optimism a boost based on anticipated small business savings under the new tax law.

Supreme Court Tariffs Decision: While we will learn more about the refund process in the days ahead, this guide provides information to help small businesses identify whether they paid IEEPA‑based tariffs and prepare for the emerging refund process.

Navigating the New Tax Law: Don't miss our practical guide to maximizing savings for your small business under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”

ICYMI: The U.S. Chamber's State of American Business 2026 event took place on Thursday, January 15. As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark unveiled a bold vision in her annual address for how the business community can help shape the nation’s next chapter. Watch here.

New Small Business Data

WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (February 18, 2026)

Summary: Main Street confidence continues to rise and small employers remain cautious about expanding their workforce.

• 27% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (3 points higher than January) and 30% say the economy has gotten worse (4 points better than January).
• 36% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (2 points higher than January) and 21% believe the economy will worsen (2 points better than January).
• 55% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (5 points higher than January) and 9% plan on decreasing employees (2 points higher than January).
• 34% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (2 points higher than January) and 50% expect fixed expenditures to remain the same.
• 71% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (4 points higher than January) and 8% believe revenues will decrease (2 points better than January).
• 60% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (4 points higher than January) and 8% believe that profitability will decrease (5 points better than January).
• 49% of small business owners anticipate tax savings from the new tax law and 33% do not.

NFIB Small Business Energy Survey (February 18, 2026)

Summary: Small businesses struggle to absorb rising energy costs and are concerned with grid reliability.

• 80% of small business owners report that energy costs significantly impact their business.
• 91% of small business owners report that their energy costs rose over the last 3-years, with 47% reporting a “significant” increase.
• 58% of small business owners reported absorbing energy costs, reducing their margins and restricting their plans to grow their business.
• 49% of small business owners adopted energy efficiency methods or lowered energy use to manage energy cost increases.
• 42% of small business owners reported that energy costs are not impacted by nearby data centers and 53% were not sure.
• 36% of small businesses reported their primary energy costs are linked to heating and/or cooling. 32% report their primary energy costs go to operating equipment, and 27% report that energy costs are primarily devoted to operative vehicles.

Small Business Fast Facts

Small Business Data Center

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Fiserv December Small Business Index (February 3, 2026)

Summary: Consumer spending held steady to start the New Year.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses decreased slightly in January after December’s slight rebound (-0.5% change) and year-over-year sales at small businesses continued to go up (+0.7% change) compared to January 2025.

U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy FAQ 2026 (February 3, 2026)

Summary: New businesses are on the rise and small businesses continue to be America’s economic engine.

• There are more than 36 million small businesses in the United States.
• Small business is defined generally in the United States as firms with fewer than 500 employees.
• Over 82% of small businesses are nonemployer firms and over 17% are employer firms.
• From January 1995 to December 2024, small businesses accounted for 61% of net new job creation in the United States.
• According to the most recent data available, over 67% of new employer firms survive at least 2-years and over 49% survive for 5-years. Two thirds of businesses that reach the 5-year mark last 10-years or more.

2025 OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Q4 Cash Flow Trend Report (January 28, 2026)

Summary: Main Street confidence continued to steadily rise throughout 2025 as did AI adoption.

• 94% of small businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth over the next year (1 point higher than last quarter) and 29.1% anticipate significant growth (1.9 points lower than last quarter).
• 31% of small business owners cite Inflation as their highest concern (1 point higher than last quarter).
• 60.7% of small business owners will pay down existing debt with any excess cash flow realized from 2025. 18.8% will build cash reserves. 6.6% will increase capital investments. 4.3% will increase marketing or customer acquisition spending. 3.4% will hire more staff and 2.6% will raise wages.
• 44% of small business owners reported changing their business operations to mitigate negative impacts caused by tariffs. The most common changes were passing along price increases to customers (30.3% of those who changed operations), seeking alternative suppliers (13%), and adding products or services (9.4%).
• 56% of small business owners have incorporated Artificial Intelligence (AI) into their operations (4 points higher than last quarter).

Honoring America's Top Small Businesses

Celebrating America's Top 100 Small Businesses

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GoDaddy Small Business Research Lab | 2025 Year-End Report (December 22, 2025)

Summary: Annual study of small businesses (5,000 in 2025) that have a GoDaddy domain and an active website. Microbusinesses’ (fewer than 10 employees) impact on job creation and increased household income for surrounding communities is on the rise.

• 65% of those surveyed are first-time business owners. 95% of those surveyed have fewer than 10 employees and 65% are solopreneurs.
• 45% of those surveyed say their business is main source of income. 40% use business revenue as supplemental income and 15% say their business provides no income.
• Microbusinesses (defined as having fewer than 10-employees) created more than 8 new jobs in their respective county in 2025 (analysis by GoDaddy/UCLA Anderson Forecast Microbusiness Activity Index). That is an increase of 6 jobs per county compared to 2020.
• Every 1% increase in household microbusiness ownership within a community correlates with 2% rise of income (approx. $1,500 over 3-years).
• 29% of small business owners believe 2025 end-of-year sales will be higher than 2024. 26% believe sales will be lower and 37% expect same level of sales year-over-year.
• 66% of small business owners believe that revenue over the next 6-months will be steady or increase. 24% believe revenue will decrease.
• 2/3 of small business owners say most of their customers live within their city or state and 69% rely on domestic supply chains. 78% of small businesses do not export their goods or services.

MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q4 (December 10, 2025)

Summary: Index shows a dip in confidence, revenue expectations, cash flow, and plans for investment. Inflation remains the top concern albeit trending downward. Note: Survey was in the field during the government shutdown.

• 70% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (2 points lower than last quarter) and 74% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points lower than last quarter).
• 43% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (3 points lower) and 28% are negative (4 points worse than last quarter).
• 38% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (2 points lower than last quarter) and 44% are negative (2 points worse than last quarter).
• 45% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (1point lower than last quarter and the 16^thconsecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 65% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 23% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (5 points less than last quarter) and 68% reported keeping the same number of staff (4 points higher than last quarter).
• 42% of small business owners expect to increase staff in the next year (2 points lower than last quarter) and 49% expect to maintain current staffing levels (3 points higher than last quarter).
• 17% of small business owners cited employee retention as their top concern (highest level in 8 ½ years).

Explore More Small Business Insights

The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

Small Business Outlook Podcast

About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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