Updated
April 21, 2025
Published
November 25, 2024
Small business revenue expectations took a hit in late March fueled by tariff uncertainty and nervousness about cost increases.
Just released! The Q1 2025 MetLife and U.S. Chamber Small Business Index is live. Find the latest data on small business confidence, top challenges, and a special section on workforce readiness insights.
Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) reporting requirements suspended: The Treasury Department announced that it will not enforce any penalties or fines associated with the beneficial ownership information reporting rule for U.S. reporting companies under the CTA. Our guide on CTA requirements is here with updates and information.
This Week's Highlights
- “Uncertainty” continues to be the top word used by small business owners to explain their challenges.
- Revenue expectations fell in March and pressure on Congress to prevent a massive tax increase at the end of the year is growing as small business owners become desperate for certainty.
New Small Business Data
Alignable’s April Tariff Report (April 4, 2025)
Summary: Small businesses’ revenue expectations fell at the end of March due to tariffs and the intensity of concern with tariff policies varies by state and by industry.
- 18% of small business owners expect increased revenues due to tariffs and 44% of expect reduced revenues. 38% of small business owners believe tariffs will have no impact.
- 68% of small business owners expect trade uncertainty to continue through April and 42% expect trade uncertainty through December of this year.
- Small businesses in New York have the largest percentage of small businesses concerned with tariffs (55%) followed by Pennsylvania 52%, Florida (48%), Massachusetts (48%), New Jersey (45%), Illinois (40%), Michigan (39%), Colorado (39%), Texas 39%), and North Carolina (39%).
- Small businesses in the wholesale trade sector have the greatest concern with tariffs (76%) followed by mining (60%), retail (57%), restaurants (54%), travel & tourism (54%), contruction (53%), transportation (53%), manufacturing (52%), and art/music services (49%).
SBE Council Small Business Technology Use Survey 2025 (April 8, 2025)
Summary: More and more small business owners are embracing AI adoption.
- 58% of small business owners are actively deploying AI tools in their business. 82% of those who are using AI have adopted the technology in the last 2-years and 35% started using AI in the past year.
- 96% of small business owners who have deployed AI in their businesses intend to continue their investments and 70% plan on increasing their investment in AI.
- The most common small business usage of AI is content writing and creation (43%) followed by image creation and presentations (36%) and e-mail automation (36%).
- 82% of small business owners believe that leadership on AI is essential to the future
National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) March Small Business Optimism Index (April 8, 2025)
Summary: Small business outlook plummeted in March, but plans for capital investment on Main Street remained steady.
- 21% of small business owners expect the economy to improve (16 points lower than February).
- 9% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (3 points lower than February).
- -11% of small business owners reported higher sales in the past 3-months (1 point better than February) and 3% are expecting higher sales (11 points lower than February).
- -1% of small business owners are planning inventory investment in the next 3-months (no change from February).
- 19% of small business owners reported labor quality as their top concern in March (2nd consecutive month), 1 point above inflation which has been the top concern for 4-years.
- 40% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill (2 points higher than February).
- 38% of small business owners raised compensation in the past 3-months (5 points higher than February) and 19% plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (1 point higher).
- 26% of small businesses raised their prices (6 points lower than February) and 30% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (1 point higher than February).
- 59% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (1 point higher than February) and 21% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (2 points higher).
- -4% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (1 point worse than February).
- The average rate paid for short maturity loans was 8.9% (up 0.1 (10 basis points)) and 28% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis (4 points higher than February).
- 3% of small business owners reported that financing was their top problem (no change from the past two months).
Fiserv Small Business Index (April 3, 2025)
Summary: Small business sales were up in March, defying consumer unease.
- Month-over-month sales at small businesses in March rose 1.8% from February and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 5.5% compared to March 2024.
MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q1 (March 26, 2025)
Summary: Confidence of local economy remains steady as uncertainty pushes other small business perceptions downward and plans for growth on Main Street stall.
- 29% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (3 points lower than last quarter).
- 37% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (1 point lower than last quarter and 1 point lower than this time last year).
- 58% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (3 points higher than last quarter and the 13th consecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
- 35% of small business owners rank revenue as their biggest challenge (10 points higher than last quarter and highest percentage in 4-years).
- 63% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (4 points lower than last quarter) and 66% are comfortable with their current cash flow (6 points lower than last quarter).
- 20% of small businesses increased staff over the past year (2 points lower than last quarter).
- 94% of small business owners say that trade schools or technical colleges do a good job preparing new employees to enter the workforce. 72% say the same for colleges and universities and 51% say that high school does a good job preparing students for jobs.
- 63% of small business owners are more likely to hire an entry-level employee if they have internship or work-study experience.
- 67% of small business owners offer flexible working hours to attract talent and pay transparency ranks second (62%) in offerings by small employers to recruit good workers followed by higher pay (55%), paid sick leave (55%) and employee referrals (50%).
WSJ / Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index (March 26, 2025)
Summary: Post election bump was reversed and small business confidence is at last summer’s level.
- 21% of small business owners say the economy has improved (9 points lower than February) and 42% say the economy has gotten worse (20 points worse than February).
- 27% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (19 points lower than February) and 43% believe the economy will worsen (11 points worse than February).
- 48% of small businesses plan on increasing employees this year (2 points higher than February).
- 36% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments in the next 12 months (2 points higher than February).
- 59% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (6 points lower than February) and 47% believe profitability will improve (7 points lower than February).
- 8% of small business owners believe that across-the-board tariffs will have a positive impact on their business (3 points lower than February). 64% believe tariffs will have a negative impact (10 points higher than February).
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About the authors
Thomas M. Sullivan
Thomas M. Sullivan is vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.
