Updated
October 19, 2026
Published
February 27, 2023
This Week's Highlights
- Main Street Headwinds: Anxiety over inflation continues to tick upward on Main Street.
- 2026 Outlook: While small business owners’ confidence in their own cash flow remains elevated, high prices are dampening expectations for high profitability and growth.
- Summary: More small business owners are focused on measurable positive impacts from the use of artificial intelligence (AI) as anxiety over inflation continues.
More small business owners are focused on measurable positive impacts from the use of artificial intelligence (AI) as anxiety over inflation continues.
Tariff Refund FAQ Guide: Visit this guide for information to help small businesses identify whether they paid IEEPA‑based tariffs and prepare for the emerging refund process.
Navigating the New Tax Law: Don't miss our practical guide to maximizing savings for small businesses under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”
ICYMI: As the United States celebrates its 250th anniversary, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark unveiled a bold vision for how the business community can help shape the nation’s next chapter. Watch here.
B20 Summit: The B20 Summit agenda is taking shape, with more than 60 confirmed speakers, including several CEOs of global companies and several top reporters who will moderate main stage sessions. Country officials and businesses that make up 3/4 of global trade will take over The Wharf in Washington, D.C., from November 9-11, 2026. Find out more here..
Is your small business a member of the U.S. Chamber? As the nation's leading small business advocacy organization, we can help you with exclusive intelligence and access, a Policy Help Desk, regular updates on economic and business trends, and more.
New Small Business Data
2026 OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Q3 Cash Flow Trend Report (July 23, 2026)
Insight Summary: Small business owners’ enthusiasm for growth waned in Q3 and their anxiety rose about inflation. Main Street employers’ confidence in their own cash flow remains high.
- 93% of small businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth over the next year (no change from the last 2 quarters) and 26.9% anticipate significant growth (3.5% lower than last quarter).
- 36% of small business owners cited inflation as their highest concern in Q3(2 points higher than last quarter) and 28% of small business owners cited cash flow as their highest concern (2 points lower than last quarter).
- 61% of small business owners have incorporated artificial intelligence (AI) into their operations and 90% of them report a measurable positive impact from using AI.
- 33% of small business owners expect to increase their investment in AI and 62% expect to maintain their current level of investment in AI.
- 41% of small business owners report having cash available to cover 30-60 days of operating expenses and 29% report having enough cash to cover less than 30 days of operating expenses.
Bank of America Institute Small Business Checkpoint (October 15, 2026)
Insight Summary: Smaller firms outpaced their larger counterparts in profitability for two straight quarters (Q2 and Q3).
- Small businesses with under $5 million in annual revenue experienced higher profitability growth in Q2 and Q3 than small businesses with revenue between $5 million and $50 million (mid sized firms).
- Trucking capacity is tightening due to driver shortages in advance of peak shipping season of late September to early December.
- Logistics spending was 4 times as much for smaller businesses than mid-sized firms during the 3rdQuarter of 2026.
- Logistics and freight payments for small businesses rose 12.7% in September compared to a year ago. The payments for mid-sized firms rose 3.2% compared to a year ago.
Impact of Technology on U.S. Small Business (5th Annual) (October 2, 2026)
Insight Summary: 2026 is the year of small business AI use and the technology is proving to be a catalyst for growth.
- Nearly 100% of small businesses use at least one technology platform and 41% use 6+ platforms (9 point increase since 2025 and nearly triple the utilization of 6+ platforms since 2022).
- 66% of small businesses use artificial intelligence (AI) (8 point increase since 2025 and nearly triple the usage since 2023).
- Small businesses that use AI are at least 7 points more likely to report sales, profit, and workforce growth than non-AI enabled small businesses.
- 47% of small business owners report that AI use is creating jobs and 6% report that AI is enabling staff reductions.
- 78% of small businesses that use AI report that limiting access to AI would slow growth and 75% report that limiting access to AI would hurt their bottom line.
- 66% of small businesses report that data centers have a positive impact on local economies and 68% believe that data centers have a positive impact on the U.S. economy.
- 95% of small businesses that use AI are working to upskill employees to broaden AI-use, comfort and knowledge. Of those companies 47% are providing on-the-job-training for using AI.
WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (October 2, 2026)
Insight Summary: Confidence in economy was pushed below the12-month average and confidence in revenue, investment, and profitability remains steady.
- 12% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (6 points lower than August) and 50% say the economy has gotten worse (10 points worse than August).
- 18% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (7 points worse than August) and 36% believe the economy will worsen (7 points worse than August).
- 51% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (6 points higher than August) and 10% plan on decreasing employees (2 points better than August).
- 35% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (3 points higher than August).
- 61% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (no change from August) and 9% believe revenues will decrease (5 points better than August).
- 45% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (2 points worse than August) and 16% believe that profitability will decrease (6 points better than August).
Justworks and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q3 (September 30, 2026)
Insight Summary: Small business owners remain resilient, with elevated confidence in their businesses’ health and cash flow. More small employers are offering benefits to keep their best employees.
- 70% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (1 point higher than last quarter) and 72% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points higher than last quarter).
- 33% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (no change from last quarter). 36% say their local economy is “about average” (8 points higher than last quarter) and 30% are negative (6 points better than last quarter).
- 27% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (3 points lower than last quarter). 22% say the national economy is “about average” (5 points higher than last quarter) and 51% are negative (1 point better than last quarter).
- 54% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (3 points lower than last quarter and the 19th consecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
- 38% of small business owners expect to increase investment in their business in the upcoming year (no change from last quarter).
- 62% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
- 17% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (2 points lower than last quarter) and 36% expect to increase staff over the next 12-months (1 point higher than last quarter).
- 46% of small businesses offer health insurance (5 points higher than Q2 2025). 40% offer paid vacation (10 points higher). 31% of small businesses offer dental/vision insurance (10 points higher) and 27% offer retirement plans (5 points higher).
Small Business Fast Facts
Honoring America's Top Small Businesses
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The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.
Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.
Small Business Outlook Podcast
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From Main Street
About the author
Thomas M. Sullivan
Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.
