Small Business Outlook: Concerns Continue into New Year

Pressure on Congress to keep the government open is amplified by data showing how small business optimism took a hit in October and November during the most recent government shutdown. The resiliency of small employers was boosted by holiday consumer spending and Main Street is bullish on revenue growth and hiring at the start of the new year. 

Discover what leading business voices are saying about the current state of the economy during the U.S. Chamber's State of American Business 2026 event on Thursday, January 15. As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark will unveil a bold vision in her annual State of American Business Address for how the business community can help shape the nation’s next chapter.

ICYMI - Q4 Small Business Index: The Q4 2025 MetLife and U.S. Chamber Small Business Index is out with new data on workforce trends, holiday plans, and more.

New Small Business Data

JPMorganChase Annual Business Leaders Outlook (January 7, 2026)

Summary: Small businesses believe inflation will continue to be their top challenge in 2026 and will impact profitability and ability to hire. Larger small businesses are doing better than their smaller counterparts and small employers in Salt Lake City are the most optimistic.  

• 60% of small business owners feel more optimistic now than at any point in the past 5-years.
• 74% of small business owners are optimistic about the outlook the upcoming year (down 1-point from last year).
• 76% of small business owners expect revenue growth in the new year (up 2-points from last year).
• 76% of small business owners expect higher profits in the new year (up 2-points from last year).
• 54% of small businesses expect to hire more employees (down 2 points from last year).
• 88% of respondents in Salt Lake City were positive about their own small businesses compared to 74% of all respondents.
• 84% of large-revenue small businesses are positive about the state of their own firms compared to 60% of small-revenue businesses.
• 38% of small business owners anticipate that tariffs will hurt their businesses in 2026 and 26% believe tariffs will help their businesses.
• 43% of respondents in San Francisco believe tariffs will have no impact on their small businesses in 2026 compared to 29% of all respondents.

NFIB December Jobs Report (January 7, 2026)

Summary: Facing the reality of fewer qualified and willing new hires, Main Street employers are investing more in their best employees.  

• 33% of small businesses reported jobs they could not fill in December (no change from November) and unfilled job openings remain above the historical average of 24%.
• 28% of small businesses have job openings for skilled workers (up 2 points from November) and 10% have openings for unskilled workers (down 2 points).
• 53% of small businesses hired or tried to hire in December (down 3 points from November) and 17% of small businesses plan on creating new jobs in the next 3-months (down 2 points from November’s highest reading of the year).
• 31% of small businesses raised compensation in December (up 5 points from November) and 24% plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (no change from November).

WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (January 6, 2026)

• https://www.vistage.com/wsj-small-business-index/
• Insight Summary: Main Street confidence and revenue expectations bounced back in December, but profitability and re-investment plans remain stalled.  
• 22% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (4 points higher than November) and 43% say the economy has gotten worse (8 points better than November.
• 33% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (3 points higher than November) and 26% believe the economy will worsen (11 points better than November).
• 59% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (4 points higher than November) and 5% plan on decreasing employees (no change from November).
• 33% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (no change from November).
• 69% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (2 points higher than November) and 8% believe revenues will decrease (3 points better than November).
• 54% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (3 points lower than November) and 13% believe that profitability will decrease (2 points better than November).
• 54% of small businesses plan on raising their prices over the next 3-months (4 points higher than November).  44% of those businesses plan on raising prices 4-6%.

Fiserv December Small Business Index (January 2, 2026)

• https://www.fiserv.com/en/fiserv-small-business-index.html
• Insight Summary: Consumers shopped for bargains and were seemingly undaunted by across-the-board price increases in December.  That spending kept the economy going. 
• Month-over-month sales at small businesses increased slightly in December after November’s dip (+0.8% change) and year-over-year sales at small businesses continued to go up (+1.6% change) compared to December 2024.

Small Business Fast Facts

Small Business Data Center

Read more

GoDaddy Small Business Research Lab | 2025 Year-End Report (December 22, 2025)

• https://www.godaddy.com/research/explore-the-data/annual-report-2025/
• Insight Summary: Annual study of small businesses (5,000 in 2025) that have a GoDaddy domain and an active website.  Microbusinesses’ (fewer than 10 employees) impact on job creation and increased household income for surrounding communities is on the rise. 
• 65% of those surveyed are first-time business owners.  95% of those surveyed have fewer than 10 employees and 65% are solopreneurs.  
• 45% of those surveyed say their business is main source of income. 40% use business revenue as supplemental income and 15% say their business provides no income.
• Microbusinesses (defined as having fewer than 10-employees) created more than 8 new jobs in their respective county in 2025 (analysis by GoDaddy/UCLA Anderson Forecast Microbusiness Activity Index).  That is an increase of 6 jobs per county compared to 2020.
• Every 1% increase in household microbusiness ownership within a community correlates with 2% rise of income (approx. $1,500 over 3-years).
• 29% of small business owners believe 2025 end-of-year sales will be higher than 2024.  26% believe sales will be lower and 37% expect same level of sales year-over-year.
• 66% of small business owners believe that revenue over the next 6-months will be steady or increase.  24% believe revenue will decrease.
• 2/3 of small business owners say most of their customers live within their city or state and 69% rely on domestic supply chains.  78% of small businesses do not export their goods or services.

Bluevine’s 2025 Small Business Growth & Trends Report (December 17, 2025)

• https://www.bluevine.com/blog/small-business-growth-trends-report-2025
• Insight Summary: Small business confidence remained high throughout 2025, but that certainly does not mean that being your own boss is easy.  
• New business growth for 2025 was concentrated in administrative services (91% year over year growth), education (72.5% growth), retail (71.6% growth), business management (64.6% growth), and health sectors (64.3% growth).
• New business totals were concentrated in NYC, LA, DC, Dallas, and Houston.  Highest percentage growth year-over-year were in smaller cities of Indianapolis (361%), Columbus (200%), DC (175%), Sacramento (147%), and Phoenix (120%).
• 58% of small businesses met or exceeded their revenue projections for 2025 and 68% of small business owners rated their financial health as stable or strong.
•  80.3% of small businesses cited inflation as a top challenge and 61.3% of small businesses raised prices to offset steeper costs. 15.3% of small businesses opted to switch suppliers to offset costs.  14.7% of small businesses chose to negotiate better terms with their suppliers to offset rising costs.
• Over ¾ of small business owners do not take a full day off once a week (zero work contacts).
• 3 in 5 small business owners sacrificed paying themselves to keep their business going at least once in 2025.

Pipedrive’s State of SMB Hiring Report (December 9, 2025)

• https://www-cms.pipedriveassets.com/documents/Haymaker-Pipedrive-SMB-Hiring-2025-FINAL.pdf
• Insight Summary: Small employers are prioritizing workforce retention strategies amidst growing frustration and expense of finding qualified and willing new employees.
• Just over half (50.6%) of small businesses cited “finding qualified candidates” as their biggest hiring challenge in 2025 and 45.5% said that filling positions was harder than 2024.
• 57.8% of small businesses reported salary increases rose by 5% or more compared to 2024, but only 24.9% listed “budget restraints” as biggest hiring challenge for 2025. 
• 59.9% of small businesses plan on adding staff in the next 3-months and 12% are planning on reducing staff or are uncertain about their hiring plans.
• 50.5% of employees at small businesses work remotely or take advantage of hybrid work arrangements and 47.7% of small employers are offering remote or hybrid work.
• 45.9% of small employers prioritize higher salaries as their top workforce retention strategy.  39% prioritize flexible scheduling and hybrid options, and 36.5% focus on bonus incentives.

CNBC’s All-America Economic Survey (December 15, 2025)

Summary: CNBC’s quarterly poll on sentiment conducted since 2006 - Small business owners and consumers are concerned with high prices, but spending remains steady.

• 42% of Americans will spend the same on holiday gifts as they did last year, diverting from a trend of spending less every year.
• 41% of Americans will spend less on holiday gifts this year and 46% of those customers blame high prices.
• 16% of Americans will spend more on holiday gifts this year and 36% of those customers cite high prices as the reason for more spending.
• The average spending on gifts is expected to be $1,026 this year, a 3.9% increase from 2024.
• 87% of shoppers did not use AI to help with holiday gift purchases.  Of the 13% of shoppers who did use AI, 57% used the technology to find the best price for a gift.
• 66% of Americans plan on watching a movie at home with family or friends during the holidays and “Home Alone” tops the list of favorite holiday movies.  “How the Grinch Stole Christmas” and “Die Hard” were close runners-up.

MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q4 (December 10, 2025)

Summary: Index shows a dip in confidence, revenue expectations, cash flow, and plans for investment. Inflation remains the top concern albeit trending downward. Note: Survey was in the field during the government shutdown.

• 70% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (2 points lower than last quarter) and 74% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points lower than last quarter).
• 43% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (3 points lower) and 28% are negative (4 points worse than last quarter).
• 38% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (2 points lower than last quarter) and 44% are negative (2 points worse than last quarter). 
• 45% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (1point lower than last quarter and the 16^thconsecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 65% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 23% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (5 points less than last quarter) and 68% reported keeping the same number of staff (4 points higher than last quarter).
• 42% of small business owners expect to increase staff in the next year (2 points lower than last quarter) and 49% expect to maintain current staffing levels (3 points higher than last quarter).
• 17% of small business owners cited employee retention as their top concern (highest level in 8 ½ years). 

Honoring America's Top Small Businesses

Celebrating America's Top 100 Small Businesses

Read more

Looking for More Small Business Insights?

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

Read more